Big Bad Fed The market rallied to kick off the back half of 2022, particularly for Tech stocks, as the key news releases comforted investors recession anxiety and their fear of the Big Bad Fed. The highly anticipated employment report showed that the U.S. economy...
Yesterday, a tragedy occurred in Highland Park, IL, the location of North Star’s suburban office. The North Star employees are safe. We want to extend our deepest sympathies to the families of the victims and those affected by this senseless act. As always, we pray...
During the period, the S&P 500 Total Return Index fell 16.10% for the quarter and is down 19.96% for the year. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Composite Index fell 2.93%% during this period and is down 7.48% for 2022. The 10Y finished the quarter at 2.97%, up from...
When Stocks Go Low… As is frequently the case in the stock market, just when it seems clearly to be the worst of times, suddenly it is the best of times. Against the bear market beat, the verse of impending recession, and the chorus of soaring inflation, the S&P...
All Eyes (Including Ours) on Gas Prices Perhaps the best way to describe the current market environment would be to edit the opening of Charles Dickens’ masterpiece “A Tale of Two Cities” by removing all the “best of times” references. "It was the worst of time…it was...
Steep and Cheap At 3pm ET on Thursday afternoon, apparently some traders gained conviction that the highly anticipated economic releases the following morning were going to paint a bleak picture. Unfortunately, that intuition proved correct, as the CPI report for May...
Let the QT Commence Rampant pessimism returned from its repose following the Memorial Day holiday, as the airwaves were bounteous with ominous proclamations from high-profile business and government celebrities. Most notably, the sound bite from J.P. Morgan's Jamie...
A Pause in Selling, a Bear Market Rally, or a New Bull Market? The dark bear-shaped clouds lifted and, in the sunshine, the recession-obsessed camp saw signs on economic resiliency and the inflation hawks viewed the silhouette of softening prices. The S&P, which...
Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer, will be interviewed on TD Ameritrade Network’s The Watch List hosted by Nicole Petallides. To hear North Star’s thoughts on market pessimism as well as our bargain stock picks, tune into the link below at 1:30 PM CT/2:30 PM ET....
Consumer Sentiment Crash It was no surprise to anyone watching the news over the last month that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May nosedived back to the lowest levels in eight-years, and approached the nadir reached in the financial crisis...
Dark Clouds Descend The stock market’s losing streak continued into May, as the Dow Jones Average lost 0.2%, its sixth straight declining week, while the S&P 500 also fell 0.2%. Once again, the losses were heavier in the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000,...
FAANG in Flux For the second week in a row, the market was slightly ahead through the Thursday afternoon coffee break only to nosedive into the weekend. By the closing bell on Friday, the S&P 500 had shed 3.27%, the Nasdaq was down 3.93%, and the Russell 2000 lost...
Technical Turnaround All was quiet on the Wall Street front until mid-morning Thursday when suddenly a nasty selling assault was unleashed in all the equity markets. The S&P 500 decline from Thursday’s high to Friday’s close was a brutal 4.7%, resulting in a loss...
During the period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average returned -4.57%, the S&P 500 returned -4.95%, the Russell 2000 returned -7.80% and the Nasdaq 100 returned -9.08%. The U.S. 10Y Treasury Yield ended the quarter at 2.338%. For the first time in two years, the...
A Million Reasons In her 2016 hit ‘Million Reasons,’ Lady Gaga sings: “I've got a hundred million reasons to walk away But, baby, I just need one good one to stay.” That one line captures how easy it is to find recent data points that support pessimism, and yet...
The $9 Trillion Question The $9 trillion question (size of the Fed’s balance sheet) which is unnerving the financial markets is whether “normal” monetary policy can be restored without crashing the economy. We have recently and frequently heard the argument that since...
Inversion Diversion Some market prognosticators believe that the stock market climbs any "wall of worry." If that is true, then the stock market is going much, much higher. Ironically, despite all the supply-chain issues globally, so far in 2022 there have been no...
During the period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average returned -4.57%, the S&P 500 returned -4.95%, the Russell 2000 returned -7.80% and the Nasdaq 100 returned -9.08%. The U.S. 10Y Treasury Yield ended the quarter at 2.338%. For the first time in two years, the...
Small-Caps Are Finding Their Footing The bounce back rally continued for a second week, with mega caps back in favor as the S&P 500 advanced +1.8%, and the Nasdaq gained nearly +2%. Small-caps continued to lag the field, with the Russell 2000 slipping -0.4%. On...
Outbreaks and New Rates In our previous commentary, “War-Torn Week”, we adapted the blues song “Stormy Monday” to describe the tone of the market. We expressed our belief that in the upcoming week that the war would be the primary determinant of the direction of...
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