Last Week: In the words of the legendary rocker Bruce Springsteen, “You can’t forsake the ties that bind”. In today’s market those “TIEs” are Trade, Interest rates, and Earnings. Trade continues to dominate the narrative, probably because President Trump is a master at controlling the story line. Global trade is a complicated issue, particularly as we have had a long period of globalization resulting in a supply chain web that is [...]
Last Week: Wow, what a strange week. Let’s call it the Good, the Bad, and the Confusing. The Good: Corporate earnings are terrific. It now looks like 20.8% net profit growth on a 9% revenue increase. The Bad: US housing starts fell 12.3% in June to a nine-month low, making for the biggest percentage decline since November 2016 and the biggest relative to expectations since January 2007. Every region experienced a [...]
Last Week: Global trade tensions once again dominated the news, as the U.S. announced additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Curiously, the S&P 500 responded by rallying 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.3%. I believe Fed Chairman Jerome Powell summarized the landscape well, as he explained that whereas the economy is in a “good place” now, trade disputes could end up being negative for the economy if [...]
Last Week: Goldilocks is still alive and well, as evidenced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics initial report on the labor situation in June, which was neither too hot nor too cold. While the unemployment rate increased slightly from 3.8% to 4.0%, the entire increase was due to an estimated approximately 600,000 people entering the workforce in search of work; such an estimated increase typically is taken as a sign of [...]
Last Week: “TINA”, which stands for there is no alternative (to equities), has been the battle cry for the bulls during this nine- plus year rally in the market. The gamble by the Federal Reserve that pushing short-term risk-free interest rates down to zero percent would stimulate investment in riskier assets paid off handsomely. Most of the money flowed into the S&P 500, being the most liquid equity basket, which helped [...]