Kuby’s Commentary

Kuby’s Commentary2018-06-14T15:17:30-05:00

Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer of North Star Investment Management, writes a weekly commentary on market and economic trends. Here is a sampling of recent commentary:

Recession Obsession

Last Week: On Wednesday night I got into an Uber and greeted my driver by saying that it was a beautiful evening. “Yes” he responded, “but the 2-10 curve has inverted and there is a recession coming in 18 months”. I’m not joking. That actually happened. The market had [...]

August 19th, 2019|

Much Ado

Last Week: There is much ado about the plummeting interest rate offered by the Ten-Year Treasury. Many experts are interpreting those declining rates at as harbinger of an impending recession. It’s interesting to take note that we have seen this pattern twice before since the Great Recession of 2009. [...]

August 12th, 2019|

2nd Quarter 2019 Market Commentary

The S&P 500 Total Return Index gained 4.3% for the quarter and is up 18.5% for the year.  The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 2.4% for the quarter and is up 4.7% for the year. Markets responded to the potential progress in trade negotiations and the likelihood of [...]

August 8th, 2019|

October 2018 Reprise? Let’s Hope Not

Last Week: The first movement of August 2019 sounded like a reprise of the atonal first stanza of October 2018, with Fed and Trade policies combining to hurt the ears and wallets of investors. On Wednesday the Fed delivered a 25-basis point reduction in the target range for short-term [...]

August 4th, 2019|

FOMOTINA Rally Resumes

Last Week: As we approach half-time of earnings season, the usual pattern of companies reporting results that are above estimates is unfolding. Those positive “surprises” are responsible for the decrease in the expected overall earnings decline to -2.6% from -3.4% last week. Revenues are expected to increase at a [...]

July 29th, 2019|

Rally Pauses with a Whiff of Fear

Last Week: The news flow created slightly more fear than greed, as Fed officials talked down the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut and President Trump on Tuesday reiterated his threat to impose further tariffs on Chinese imports. Earnings season got off to a mixed start with CSX [...]

July 22nd, 2019|
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