Kuby’s Commentary

Wag the Dog Rally

Last Week: The market continued its recent rebound, as the narrative has shifted to include a more dovish Fed policy as well as a positive resolution of the trade war with China. The momentum-based trading models (are there any other trading models these days?) all flashed “buy, buy, buy!” leading to a 2.9% gain for the week and a 6.5% rise for 2019, which is its best start since 1987. For [...]

2019-01-21T18:21:22+00:00January 21st, 2019|

Good News, Bad News

Last Week: December 2018 was one of the worst months in history for the stock market, with the toxic combination of tax-loss selling and momentum trading driving stock prices down relentlessly. So far, the “January effect” in 2019 has been dramatic, as beaten down shares have bounced handsomely, recouping about half of the losses from December. There were no narrative-changing developments during the week, as fed policy remains data dependent, trade [...]

2019-01-14T12:21:24+00:00January 14th, 2019|

Twists and Turns and Kicks to the Left

Last Week: Alongside the Chicago Bears, the Wall Street bears were major losers this week. It was the best of times, as there was news that moderated the bear market narrative driven by concerns over the economy, fed policy, and the trade war. As for the economy, job-growth surged in December, as nonfarm payrolls increased by 312,000 -- the strongest reading since February. As to fed policy, in a panel interview [...]

2019-01-07T09:00:45+00:00January 7th, 2019|

The Christmas Song on Wall Street

Last Week: . On Monday, the market suffered its worst Christmas Eve performance on record, with almost a 3% decline on all equity indices. That evening, Carolers sang an altered version of The Christmas Song: Chestnuts roasting on an open fire Jack Frost nipping at your nose Waves of sellers and hardly a buyer Those gosh darn traders with their momentum algos Everybody knows a turkey and some mistletoe Help to [...]

2018-12-31T07:49:02+00:00December 31st, 2018|

‘Tis the Season to not Panic

Last Week: At the end of August, we noted a disconnect between the news flow and the markets performance: “The often-cited adage is that the stock market climbs the wall of worry. I would suggest that the current market is instead climbing the wall of “whatever”, because no one seems particularly worried about anything. The global supply chain and trade agreements are all in flux, not only with China, but also [...]

2018-12-24T11:33:46+00:00December 24th, 2018|


Last Week: Pessimism has taken root, as the impact of the “trade war” on global economies has become manifest. In a sporting contest there is usually a winner and a loser. You strategize to beat your opponent. Global trade is not a sporting contest. Quite to the contrary, you want your trading partners’ economies to be robust, so that they can buy more of your goods, and produce the goods they [...]

2018-12-17T14:03:06+00:00December 17th, 2018|

Baby It’s Cold Outside

Last Week: Baby, it’s cold outside, and on Wall Street. Parenthetically, the Frank Loesser classic holiday song of that title (the “Elf” rendition is my favorite) has been banned from certain radio stations, but that’s a topic for a different forum. The glow from the warmth of the weekend Trump/Xi G20 meeting quickly faded, as details of any U.S./China trade agreement proved sketchy at best, leading to nearly an 800-point drop [...]

2018-12-17T14:07:18+00:00December 10th, 2018|

Bears Take a Bye Week

Last Week: In the NFL, the Chicago Bears had a bye on Sunday, which means they didn’t get to play. Apparently, the Wall Street Bears followed suit, as the S&P 500 staged an impressive 4.85% rally without meeting much resistance. It was the S&P 500’s best weekly performance since 2011. Consumers were feeling bullish, as Cyber Monday sales topped $7.9 Billion, a 19.7% increase from last year according to Adobe Analytics, [...]

2018-12-17T14:16:23+00:00December 3rd, 2018|

Bear Down

Last Week: In Chicago and on Wall Street, it was a very good week for the Bears. For the former, there were wins on Sunday versus the Vikings and Thursday versus the Lions. For the latter, there were steep declines on Monday and Tuesday which resulted in a 3.8% loss in the S&P 500, which wiped out the remaining gains for 2018. Whereas just two months ago the primary concern was [...]

2018-12-17T14:19:45+00:00November 26th, 2018|

Downward Drift

Last Week: The market resumed its downward trend, with the S&P 500 shedding 1.61% and the Russell 2000 declining 1.42%. All ten sectors experienced losses, with Oil & Gas shares faring the worst as crude oil prices dropping for a record 12 straight days to settle at $56.46 down 26% since Oct. 3. The sharp decline in energy prices have stoked concerns over a global slowdown, but a feature article in [...]

2018-12-17T14:23:42+00:00November 19th, 2018|