Kuby’s Commentary

Party On to New Highs

Last Week: Curiouser and curiouser. How does this market keep setting new highs? During this past week, decliners and new lows outnumbered advancers and new highs, yet the S&P 500 notched a 0.85% gain and the DJIA surged 2.25% to finally reach new record. The usual suspects did not drive the rally, as both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 experienced modest declines. Instead, there was a rotation into the three [...]

2018-09-24T09:10:46+00:00September 24th, 2018|

Higher Again

Last Week: Once again, the market floated higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.16%, as the sweet vapors of good economic news filled the air. The September University of Michigan sentiment index rose to its second highest level since 2014, and Index of Business Optimism registered its highest reading ever. Additionally, both CPI and PPI came in lower than expected, at least temporarily quieting the inflation concerns, and perhaps weakening the [...]

2018-09-17T09:02:28+00:00September 17th, 2018|

Tasty Pudding

Last Week: If the proof of the pudding is really in the eating, then the current economic policy recipe seems to be valid as the US numbers remained terrific with very strong manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISMs, and jobless claims this week were 203,000, the lowest level since December of 1969. As we mature, however, we come to realize that there is more than just the pleasure of eating a tasty dessert [...]

2018-09-10T11:25:11+00:00September 10th, 2018|

Higher

Last Week: Another record high for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.93% and the Russell 2000 0.87%. There wasn’t much news, fake or otherwise, driving the action, and volume was light in the pre-holiday week trading. One might say the song remains the same, or perhaps the songs remain the same, as clearly there are two tunes in the air. The momentum investors continue to dance to Sly [...]

2018-09-04T10:13:53+00:00September 4th, 2018|

Climbing the Wall of Whatever

Last Week: Stocks hit new highs, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.86% to finally close above its January 26th top, while small stocks fared even better, as the Russell 2000 surged 1.93%. The often-cited adage is that the stock market climbs the wall of worry. I would suggest that the current market is instead climbing the wall of “whatever”, because no one seems particularly worried about anything. The global supply chain and [...]

2018-08-28T09:51:36+00:00August 27th, 2018|

Attention Walmart Shoppers

Last Week: To the casual observer, it was a quiet week, with the S&P 500 posting a modest 0.59% gain, while the U.S. Dollar and bond markets were largely unchanged. On the other hand, there was tremendous daily volatility in the overall market, as well as continued stock specific winners and losers. The concern over the crisis in Turkey early in the week, gave way to optimism over the U.S. consumer [...]

2018-08-20T16:02:32+00:00August 20th, 2018|

Turkey and Tiger

Last Week: The S&P 500 slipped 0.25%, the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury slid 10 basis points to 2.85%, while the U.S Dollar strengthened over 1% to a new 2018 high. The chart below shows the link between the strength in the dollar and the S&P this year, particularly since the end of March when the “Trade War” dialogue started dominating the headlines. It’s hard to tell how the dollar and [...]

2018-08-13T13:16:11+00:00August 13th, 2018|

The Theme Remains the Same

Last Week: Our TIEs (Trade, Interest rates, Earnings) theme remained the dominate narrative, with relatively benign developments on the Trade and Interest rates front and continued spectacular Earnings. Unlike most quarters when analysts make downward revisions to earnings estimates as the reporting season approaches, in the first and second quarters of 2018 analysts increased expectations ahead of earnings reports. Even with elevated expectations, 78.2% of the index reported first quarter earnings [...]

2018-08-06T09:27:20+00:00August 6th, 2018|

The TIEs that Bind

Last Week: In the words of the legendary rocker Bruce Springsteen, “You can’t forsake the ties that bind”. In today’s market those “TIEs” are Trade, Interest rates, and Earnings. Trade continues to dominate the narrative, probably because President Trump is a master at controlling the story line. Global trade is a complicated issue, particularly as we have had a long period of globalization resulting in a supply chain web that is [...]

2018-07-30T14:38:50+00:00July 30th, 2018|

The Good the Bad and the Confusing

Last Week: Wow, what a strange week. Let’s call it the Good, the Bad, and the Confusing. The Good: Corporate earnings are terrific. It now looks like 20.8% net profit growth on a 9% revenue increase. The Bad: US housing starts fell 12.3% in June to a nine-month low, making for the biggest percentage decline since November 2016 and the biggest relative to expectations since January 2007. Every region experienced a [...]

2018-07-23T10:19:49+00:00July 23rd, 2018|