Kuby’s Commentary

A Cautious Rebound

Last Week: On Tuesday night, the mid-term elections went pretty much as planned, and the market responded with an impressive rally on Wednesday. Perhaps there was relief that the Democrats didn’t take control of both the House and the Senate, or perhaps there was enthusiasm over the prospects of a big infrastructure bill (yippee, more debt!), something that both Democrats and Republicans seem to support. The rally fizzled on Friday with [...]

2018-11-12T10:17:06+00:00November 12th, 2018|

Trick or Tweet

Last Week: A bagful of earnings, economic data, and tweets, left investors to digest whether these were tricks or treats. By Friday’s close the verdict was primarily treats, as the S&P 500 snapped its losing streak to finish +2.42%. Nevertheless, there were a few rotten fruits in the bag, most notably Apple’s weaker than expected guidance for the fourth quarter. Friday’s blockbuster payroll report, showing that the U.S. added 250,000 jobs [...]

2018-11-05T11:19:17+00:00November 5th, 2018|

The Pendulum Swings

Last Week: Ouch. The previous week’s sideways bottoming action gave way to a nasty sell-off, with the S&P 500 surrendering its remaining gains for 2018 after declining 3.9%. The Pendulum has quickly swung from greed to fear as the Volatility Index spiked to its highest level since early February. It wasn’t the actual earnings reports that fostered the selling wave, instead it was the more cautionary tone within the reports, particularly [...]

2018-10-29T08:56:22+00:00October 29th, 2018|

Sideways

Last Week: Earnings season got back on track, and the market responded with a nice rebound early in the week, only to have the gains dissipate with the market finishing flat to slightly lower by the close on Friday. So far, major bank earnings in particular are looking very good, both the level of earnings and the quality of the earnings. I believe that as interest rates rise, the large, multi-regional [...]

2018-10-22T09:11:57+00:00October 22nd, 2018|

Loco Sell-off

Last Week: It was the worst week for the equity market since early February, with the S&P 500 declining 4.1%, erasing over half the gains for the year. Only a relief rally of over 1% in the last hour of trading Friday allowed the index to break a six-day losing streak. The twin headwinds of rising rates and trade tensions uprooted the pillar of strong corporate earnings, as cautionary language from [...]

2018-10-15T11:57:43+00:00October 15th, 2018|

Headwinds Stiffen

Last Week: Despite enthusiasm on Monday morning over the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (take note that the word “Trade” disappeared from the agreement formally known as NAFTA), as the week progressed the trade and interest rate headwinds once again intensified. On the trade front, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told Reuters on Friday that the US and China probably won’t resume trade negotiations until after the November mid-term elections. It is becoming [...]

2018-10-08T12:09:18+00:00October 8th, 2018|

Headwinds

Last Week: The two major near-term headwinds were lightly blowing in the face of investors, with the implementation of tariffs on Monday by the U.S. and China, followed by the Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday. Both events were widely expected, and the damage was minimal, with the S&P 500 retreating 0.54% and the Russell 2000 0.92%. Also, as expected, the Fed removed the word “accommodative” from its policy statement. The [...]

2018-10-01T12:54:07+00:00October 1st, 2018|

Party On to New Highs

Last Week: Curiouser and curiouser. How does this market keep setting new highs? During this past week, decliners and new lows outnumbered advancers and new highs, yet the S&P 500 notched a 0.85% gain and the DJIA surged 2.25% to finally reach new record. The usual suspects did not drive the rally, as both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 experienced modest declines. Instead, there was a rotation into the three [...]

2018-09-24T09:10:46+00:00September 24th, 2018|

Higher Again

Last Week: Once again, the market floated higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.16%, as the sweet vapors of good economic news filled the air. The September University of Michigan sentiment index rose to its second highest level since 2014, and Index of Business Optimism registered its highest reading ever. Additionally, both CPI and PPI came in lower than expected, at least temporarily quieting the inflation concerns, and perhaps weakening the [...]

2018-09-17T09:02:28+00:00September 17th, 2018|

Tasty Pudding

Last Week: If the proof of the pudding is really in the eating, then the current economic policy recipe seems to be valid as the US numbers remained terrific with very strong manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISMs, and jobless claims this week were 203,000, the lowest level since December of 1969. As we mature, however, we come to realize that there is more than just the pleasure of eating a tasty dessert [...]

2018-09-10T11:25:11+00:00September 10th, 2018|