Kuby’s Commentary

Last Week ​The headline in Barron’s “The Trader” column reads “A Winning Week Masks Trouble Below the Surface”. Indeed, while the casual observer might see Wall Street scoring a three-week winning streak and closing out October on a six-month positive run, digging...

Last Week Strong earnings reports, tame inflation data, and optimism over trade relations with China combined to drive the stock market to a new record high. Investors remained unconcerned about the spike in oil prices or the government shutdown, which reached its...

Last Week Following the prior Friday’s sharp sell-off, markets bounced back on Monday after President Trump dialed back his 72-hour-old threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on China. However, the trade teeter-totter swung again on Tuesday, sending stocks lower...

Last Week The old Wall Street saying goes “the market takes the stairway up and the elevator down”. Unfortunately, we had a quick elevator down from the penthouse on Friday, triggered by renewed trade war concerns. Despite the government shutdown, the market reached...

Last Week No deal! The government shut down on Wednesday after Senate votes on a continuing resolution did not pass. Following the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release the much-anticipated September nonfarm payroll report. The ADP report...

Last Week After a nine-month gestation period, the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut. Additionally, the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) tilted more dovish with two more cuts in 2025. Nevertheless, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision...

Last Week “It’s the economy, stupid” was a phrase coined by James Carville in 1992, when he was advising Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign. The related phrase in the stock market recently could be “It’s the Fed Funds rate, stupid”. Following tame inflation data,...

Last Week The stock market inched up, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high on Thursday before retreating on Friday during the holiday-shortened week. Sentiment was mixed as the weakness in the labor market bolstered the case for more aggressive Fed easing but...

Last Week All was quiet on Wall Street, as traders digested solid economic data, Nvidia’s earnings, and the never-ending news flow in the nation’s capital. Nvidia, the world's largest chipmaker and most highly valued company, posted terrific earnings, but investors...