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- Archive posts -

Month: January 2019

4th Quarter 2018 Market Commentary

The financial markets were volatile in the final quarter of the year as investors worried about the trade negotiations with China, the Fed raising rates too aggressively and the potential for a slowing global economy in 2019. Interest rates fell sharply the last three...

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It’s a Profit Deal

Last Week: The holiday-shortened trading week started with a doink (yes, I’m still mourning the Bears loss) as the IMF cut its forecast for world economic growth in 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%, leading to a 1.42% loss in the S&P 500, the largest market decline since...

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Wag the Dog Rally

Last Week: The market continued its recent rebound, as the narrative has shifted to include a more dovish Fed policy as well as a positive resolution of the trade war with China. The momentum-based trading models (are there any other trading models these days?) all...

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Good News, Bad News

Last Week: December 2018 was one of the worst months in history for the stock market, with the toxic combination of tax-loss selling and momentum trading driving stock prices down relentlessly. So far, the “January effect” in 2019 has been dramatic, as beaten down...

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Twists and Turns and Kicks to the Left

Last Week: Alongside the Chicago Bears, the Wall Street bears were major losers this week. It was the best of times, as there was news that moderated the bear market narrative driven by concerns over the economy, fed policy, and the trade war. As for the economy,...

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