Monthly Archives: July 2019

FOMOTINA Rally Resumes

Last Week: As we approach half-time of earnings season, the usual pattern of companies reporting results that are above estimates is unfolding. Those positive “surprises” are responsible for the decrease in the expected overall earnings decline to -2.6% from -3.4% last week. Revenues are expected to increase at a tepid 4.0% clip, and the trailing P/E ratio is a rather elevated 19.8, while based on growth expectations for later in the [...]

2019-07-29T10:28:55-05:00July 29th, 2019|

Rally Pauses with a Whiff of Fear

Last Week: The news flow created slightly more fear than greed, as Fed officials talked down the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut and President Trump on Tuesday reiterated his threat to impose further tariffs on Chinese imports. Earnings season got off to a mixed start with CSX lowering its full-year guidance as CEO James Foote called the economic backdrop “one of the most puzzling I have experienced in my [...]

2019-07-23T09:50:13-05:00July 22nd, 2019|

FOMOTINA Rally

Last Week: FOMOTINA: A rally fueled by the combination of Fear Of Missing Out with There Is No Alternative. Another week of gains for the S&P 500, which advanced 0.78% to top 3000 and close at a record high. The narrative (song) remained the same, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony left the fed-funds futures market suggesting a 100% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points at [...]

2019-07-18T16:17:41-05:00July 15th, 2019|

G20 Relief Party with Fireworks

Last Week: The G20 Relief Party lasted through the Independence Day Holiday, with the market advancing for six straight days to reach a new record high on Wednesday. The very light volume suggested that many traders headed to their beach houses early in the week, and perhaps were in too high spirits to be disturbed by the surprisingly strong jobs report on Friday that pretty much eliminated the chance of a [...]

2019-07-08T10:10:32-05:00July 8th, 2019|

Hey June, You Took a Sad Song and Made it Better

Last Week: The twin narrative of a dovish Fed and optimism surrounding a potential trade deal at the G20 spilled over into small cap stocks (hallelujah!) as the Russell 2000 jumped 1.09%. The S&P 500 slipped modestly for the week, but  posted its best June since 1955 with a 6.89% gain. Before we uncork the champagne bottles, it’s worth remembering that May was not very merry, and we are essentially back [...]

2019-07-01T14:12:47-05:00July 1st, 2019|