Kuby’s Commentary

Earnings Power Meets Policy Patience

Last Week Strong earnings reports, tame inflation data, and optimism over trade relations with China combined to drive the stock market to a new record high. Investors remained unconcerned about the spike in oil prices or the government shutdown, which reached its...

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Cockroaches in Credit, Markets in Motion

Last Week Following the prior Friday’s sharp sell-off, markets bounced back on Monday after President Trump dialed back his 72-hour-old threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on China. However, the trade teeter-totter swung again on Tuesday, sending stocks lower...

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Liberation Day Revisited

Last Week The old Wall Street saying goes “the market takes the stairway up and the elevator down”. Unfortunately, we had a quick elevator down from the penthouse on Friday, triggered by renewed trade war concerns. Despite the government shutdown, the market reached...

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Washington Argues, Wall Street Trades

Last Week No deal! The government shut down on Wednesday after Senate votes on a continuing resolution did not pass. Following the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release the much-anticipated September nonfarm payroll report. The ADP report...

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Don’t Count Your Cuts Before They Hatch

Last Week The stock market suffered three days of losses sandwiched between gains on Monday and Friday, as Wall Street snapped a three-week winning streak to finish modestly lower. The Fed remained in the spotlight, cutting rates as expected on Wednesday, but...

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The Fed Delivers

Last Week After a nine-month gestation period, the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut. Additionally, the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) tilted more dovish with two more cuts in 2025. Nevertheless, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision...

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Now Batting…the Federal Reserve

Last Week “It’s the economy, stupid” was a phrase coined by James Carville in 1992, when he was advising Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign. The related phrase in the stock market recently could be “It’s the Fed Funds rate, stupid”. Following tame inflation data,...

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Gold Rush, Jobs Bust

Last Week The stock market inched up, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high on Thursday before retreating on Friday during the holiday-shortened week. Sentiment was mixed as the weakness in the labor market bolstered the case for more aggressive Fed easing but...

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Quiet Finish to Summer

Last Week All was quiet on Wall Street, as traders digested solid economic data, Nvidia’s earnings, and the never-ending news flow in the nation’s capital. Nvidia, the world's largest chipmaker and most highly valued company, posted terrific earnings, but investors...

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All About Jerome

Last Week “The Shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Traders translated that to mean “we are lowering the fed funds rate at the...

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