Last Week: The U.S. economic data and corporate earnings reports clearly indicated a strengthening recovery, along with new signs of mounting inflationary pressures. Retail sales surged 9.8% in March compared to the prior month, its steepest increase since May last year, when the retail sector rebounded from the early spring shutdowns across the nation. US jobless claims plunged to 576,000 last week, their lowest level of the COVID-19 pandemic, and far [...]
Last Week: Investors continued getting what they want, as well as what they need, despite some storm clouds forming on the horizon. Stocks rallied to close once again at record levels Friday, with the S&P 500 topping 4,100, as investors ignored concerns about inflation even while March core producer prices (PPI), which excludes the more short-term volatile food and energy components of the economy, increased by the most in more than [...]
Last Week: The S&P 500 crossed over the 4,000 threshold on April Fools’ Day to set another record, finishing up +1.14%. Small caps were not joking around, with the Russell 2000 gaining +1.46%, and the Tech sector pranked its detractors by bouncing +3.15%. Trading volume was extremely light, reaching its lowest levels of 2021 on Monday and again on Tuesday. The dollar and gold were both essentially unchanged, while the yield [...]
Last Week: The economic data was fairly consistent with expectations, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate of fourth-quarter GDP increased to 4.3% from the last estimate in February of 4.1%. Personal Income declined 7.1% month over month, after jumping 10% in January, and Spending declined 1% after increasing 2.4% the previous month. The weekly initial claims for unemployment came in at 684,000, a decrease of 97,000 from the previous week's revised [...]
Last Week: The Big Bad Bond Market once again bared its jagged teeth, as the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury climbed another 10 basis points to breach the 1.75% level for the first time in 14 months. The stock market showed signs of fear as the Dow and S&P fell 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, snapping two-week winning streaks, while the Nasdaq piggies in their straw houses lost 0.8%, posting its fourth [...]
Last Week: The economic outlook continued to brighten, with the pandemic subsiding and the potent combination of monetary and fiscal policies priming the growth pump. The Big Bad Bond market growled as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 1.64%, hitting its highest level since February a year ago. The equity markets showed no fear, instead focused on the significant economic growth anticipated following the signing of the $1.9 [...]
Last Week: On Monday all 11 sectors rallied and the S&P posted its biggest daily gain since June, as the combination over the previous weekend of the positive vaccine news from Johnson & Johnson, the approval of the stimulus plan by the House, and a decline of 5 basis points in the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury set the trading tone. I can’t remember another trading session with as strong an [...]
Last Week: We were often reminded during the recent challenging economic period that the market climbs the wall of worry. The inverse proposition might caution that the market can slide down the chute of good cheer. Following up on our most recent commentary, the vectors on the economy, the pandemic, and government policies all pointed up the arc of optimism. Initial claims for unemployment fell sharply, while personal income and spending skyrocketed. [...]
Last Week: Where are we and where do we go from here? Reflecting on the current status of the economy and markets, I find myself swaying back and forth on the optimism/pessimism pendulum. Although on balance trending more towards the arc of optimism. Certain data points suggest the economy is faring much better than expected, as evidenced by a 5.3% jump in retail sales in January from December and 7.4% from [...]
Last Week: In the Kuby’s Commentary version of “Rally, Rinse, Repeat,” we once again report that the market set new record highs, the economic data was mixed, the battle with COVID-19 raged on, and the politicians were mired in debate over the size and scope of additional stimulus. True to the script for another week, all the major stock averages advanced, with small-cap Russell 2000 index leading the charge with a [...]