Kuby’s Commentary

FOMOTINA Rally

Last Week: FOMOTINA: A rally fueled by the combination of Fear Of Missing Out with There Is No Alternative. Another week of gains for the S&P 500, which advanced 0.78% to top 3000 and close at a record high. The narrative (song) remained the same, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony left the fed-funds futures market suggesting a 100% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points at [...]

2019-07-15T08:42:47-05:00July 15th, 2019|

G20 Relief Party with Fireworks

Last Week: The G20 Relief Party lasted through the Independence Day Holiday, with the market advancing for six straight days to reach a new record high on Wednesday. The very light volume suggested that many traders headed to their beach houses early in the week, and perhaps were in too high spirits to be disturbed by the surprisingly strong jobs report on Friday that pretty much eliminated the chance of a [...]

2019-07-08T10:10:32-05:00July 8th, 2019|

Hey June, You Took a Sad Song and Made it Better

Last Week: The twin narrative of a dovish Fed and optimism surrounding a potential trade deal at the G20 spilled over into small cap stocks (hallelujah!) as the Russell 2000 jumped 1.09%. The S&P 500 slipped modestly for the week, but  posted its best June since 1955 with a 6.89% gain. Before we uncork the champagne bottles, it’s worth remembering that May was not very merry, and we are essentially back [...]

2019-07-01T14:12:47-05:00July 1st, 2019|

Ebb and Flow of Tensions and Stresses

Last Week: In early November 2016 the Fed Funds Rate was 0.25% and the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury was just under 2%. The consensus opinion was that rates had been artificially low since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but that it was time to normalize those rates. Turn the clock forward to this past Wednesday, the Ten-Year Treasury briefly traded below a 2% yield, while the Fed left short-term rates unchanged [...]

2019-06-24T14:16:53-05:00June 24th, 2019|

Baby Steps

Last Week: The market opened modestly higher Monday morning in response to the shift away from imposing tariffs on Mexico over the weekend and then treaded water the rest of the week to register 0.47% gain by the closing bell on Friday. The Ten Year-Treasury rate was also steady, ticking up one basis point to 2.09%. There was no discernible progress on the U.S./China Trade talks, and the economic indicators (CPI, [...]

2019-06-17T10:13:12-05:00June 17th, 2019|

Slightly Cold Porridge and a Pretty Hot Market

Last Week: Since the end of September, Federal Reserve and Trade policies have been the two storylines that have influenced the mood on Wall Street. Simply stated, the market wants the Fed to lower interest rates and for tariffs to go away. As a result, slightly cold porridge is in favor, as soft economic numbers improve the chances of both of those outcomes. In this twisted reality show, the economic headwinds [...]

2019-06-10T12:47:23-05:00June 10th, 2019|

Not So Very Merry Month of May

Last Week: The focus was clearly on trade issues, with bad news bookends from China and Mexico. Early in the week China indicated that it would retaliate to recent U.S. actions by using its 80% dominance of rare-earth metals used in high tech gear. Technology shares suffered further losses, with the sector declining 8.43% in the month of May, while the Telecommunications sector lost 6.73% during the week. Expectations of a [...]

2019-06-03T09:34:58-05:00June 3rd, 2019|

Fluctuations

Last Week: Legend has it that a young man ventured to inquire J.P. Morgan’s opinion as to the future course of the stock market. The alleged reply has become classic: “Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.” From February 2016 until February 2018 the market violated that theory, rising 45% with very little fluctuations. Since then the market has fluctuated quite a bit, but hasn’t gone anywhere. The [...]

2019-05-28T09:43:37-05:00May 28th, 2019|

Just Another Manic Monday

Last Week: The “candid and constructive” tweet rally from the previous Friday was short-lived as hopes of a trade deal evaporated by Monday morning after China said it would raise tariffs on U.S. goods and President Trump signed an executive order banning telecommunications equipment built by foreign adversaries (aimed at China’s Huawei Technologies). The market broke into a chorus of “I Don’t Like Mondays”, the 1979 classic from the Boomtown Rats, [...]

2019-05-20T08:58:29-05:00May 20th, 2019|

Tweeting Away the Complacency

Last Week: “He rocks in the White House all day long Hoppin' and a-boppin' and singing his song All the little traders on Wall Street Love to hear the President go tweet-tweet-tweet” Adapted from the Bobby Day classic “Rockin Robin” These are strange times indeed that we live in. Last Sunday around noon President Trump tweeted that the trade negotiations with the Chinese were going too slowly and that the tariff [...]

2019-05-15T14:53:13-05:00May 13th, 2019|