Kuby’s Commentary

More Bad News Bears

Winter Is Coming The selling deluge continued with the S&P 500 losing 2.9% to finish at its lowest level since Christmas 2020. The storyline remained the same as the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose a whopping 0.1% more than forecasters expected. Meanwhile, Fed officials on the speaking circuit (can they stop?) maintained their hawkish stance. There was some good news about the economy, as new jobless claims fell below [...]

2022-10-03T12:13:14-05:00October 3rd, 2022|

Friday Fizzle

Walmart Sales Up, Gas Prices Down The stock market rally ran out of steam, as the S&P dropped 1.2%, the Nasdaq declined 2.6%, and the Russell 2000 slid 2.9%. Most of the damage was on Friday, without any specific news to account for the mood swing. Of note, the market didn’t react on Wednesday when the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed that officials expected to continue to hike rates, [...]

2022-08-22T11:55:34-05:00August 22nd, 2022|

Still Hiring, Not Firing

An Economy Off Life-Support After much reflection we have come up with the novel concept that good news is actually good news. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, more than twice as high as expected, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, matching the lowest level since the late 1960s. We think this report offers solid evidence that the economy is off [...]

2022-08-11T11:02:59-05:00August 8th, 2022|

Rate Rise Rally Redux

A Shift Back to Dovish Against the backdrop of the Fed raising rates and a shrinking GDP, the stock market finished July with a flourish as the S&P 500 rallied 4.5%, the Nasdaq gained 4.7%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 4.3%. The Oil and Gas sector was the strongest performer, jumping 10.6% with energy prices reversing the recent downtrend after Russia’s Gazprom said on Monday that it would halve natural gas [...]

2022-08-11T11:17:04-05:00August 1st, 2022|
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