Last Week: P=MV P=Momentum M=Mass V=Velocity The S&P 500 set another record on Thursday, as the upward momentum powered stocks through the destabilizing news flow from the Middle East. A minor sell-off on Friday following a tepid jobs report left the S&P 500 slightly below that record, but still +0.9% for the week. The yield on the Ten-Year Treasury inched up 3 basis points to 1.82%. For those of you who [...]
Last Week: The economic trends remained in place as 2019 wrapped up as the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits at the end of 2019 fell slightly, showing the pace of layoffs in the U.S. remains near a half-century low. Initial jobless claims slipped by 2,000 to 222,000 in the seven days ended Dec. 28. Meanwhile a slump of American manufacturers deepened in December as a survey of senior [...]
Last Week: The S&P 500 inched up 0.58% on extremely light volume to close at another record high. Small and Mid cap stocks drifted fractionally lower, and the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury slipped 5 basis points to 1.87%. There were a few reasons for good cheer. On the domestic front, holiday retail sales boomed according to MasterCard-SpendingPulse. On the trade front, China said it planned to cut tariffs on 859 [...]
Last Week: The FOMOTINA Rally (Fear of Missing Out There Is No Alternative) kicked into high gear, with U.S. stocks hitting record closing highs again on Friday and the S&P 500 registering a 1.65% gain, its biggest weekly rise since early September. The rally was fueled by continued optimism about developments in the U.S.-China trade dispute and a strong 0.4% increase in November consumer spending, adding to a string of upbeat [...]
Last Week: The three big storylines of 2019, Trade, Brexit, and the Fed, were all at play, but generally were met with a muted response, suggesting the script writers need some new material to engage traders in 2020. The market drifted lower through Wednesday as investors were a bit spooked by the prospect of Friday the 13th coming without a consummated trade deal, which could have resulted in (disastrous) new tariffs [...]
Last Week: We concluded last week’s blog saying “Friday is a big day for economic releases with the November nonfarm payrolls and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index scheduled to be reported. The stock market party will probably rage on as long as people have jobs and are feeling optimistic.” Party on! Unemployment in November reached a 50-year low as payrolls jumped a whopping 266,000. Meanwhile, consumer attitudes improved markedly [...]
Last Week: The market climbed to new highs early in the week as trade deal optimism grew after China indicated that it was taking steps to tighten intellectual property rules. The Bears took over later in the week (Chicago Bears 24, Detroit Lions 20 on Thanksgiving) after President Trump signed a bill from Congress in support of Hong Kong protestors. Nevertheless, the S&P still finished in the green with an advance [...]
Last Week: All was quiet on the Wall Street front. The S&P 500 slipped 0.33% to break its six week winning streak, as reasonably good consumer reports offset modestly negative trade headlines. During that winning streak the market exhibited a remarkable absence of volatility, inching up approximately 1% a week, for a total gain of slightly less than 6%. On the consumer front, October retail sales bounced back 0.3% after declining [...]
Last Week: TKIF! (Thank Kudlow It’s Friday) The market drifted through Thursday’s close, as investors slumbered through a mixed bag of economic reports and earnings releases, an escalation of unrest in Hong Kong, a clear message that interest rate policy is on hold during the congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and the Trump impeachment inquiry. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow sparked a nice rally in Friday’s trading by [...]
Last Week: It was a pretty quiet news week, as the Wall Street Bears remained in hibernation, while the Chicago Bears emerged (a win is a win). As we moved into the ninth inning of earnings season, the blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings decline for the third quarter improved modestly to -2.4%, from -2.8% last week. [...]