Kuby’s Commentary

Time for a New Tune

Last Week: The song remained the same on Wall Street with a disconcerting level of COVID-19 cases and deaths combined with dysfunctional drama in D.C., somewhat offset by promising vaccine development announcements. The market experienced roller coaster daily swings that left the market slightly lower for the fourth week in a row, with the S&P 500 down -0.6%. Over the course of this September sell-off the market has declined -6.47%, essentially [...]

2020-09-29T12:35:48-05:00September 28th, 2020|

As the Clock Turns

Last Week: Hot tech IPOs and renewed optimism on the development of COVID-19 vaccines provided a springboard for a rally in the markets on Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC meeting poked the bears back into action. The Nasdaq 100 sank as much as 2.8% on Thursday, dragged down by a slump in the mega cap technology stocks that have powered this year’s rebound. The slide came after Fed policy [...]

2020-09-29T13:02:17-05:00September 21st, 2020|

Bearing Down on Vaccine Clock

Last Week: The Bears are back in action. On Wall Street the market labored to find its footing following the holiday weekend, with the S&P declining 2.5% to post its first back-to-back weekly loss in four months. The Tech sector had its worst week since March with the Nasdaq shedding 4.06%, but all ten sectors were in the red with the Energy sector posting a 6.86% loss as crude oil fell [...]

2020-09-14T09:18:38-05:00September 14th, 2020|

Are Tech Traders Troubles Here To Stay?

Last Week: At lunch on Friday I saw a band called “The Momentum Traders” singing a somber tune: Yesterday The market was such an easy game to play Now it looks as though might stocks might sway Oh, I believe in yesterday Suddenly My portfolio isn’t what it used to be There's a margin call hanging over me Oh, yesterday came suddenly Why Tesla had to go low, I don't know [...]

2020-09-08T09:37:37-05:00September 8th, 2020|

Consumer Low Market High

Last Week: The S&P 500 gained 3.26% to set another record high, while the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury jumped 9 basis points to 0.73%, its highest level since June 10th. Tech stocks continued to surge, with the Nasdaq composite adding 3.39% and is now up an incredible 30.35% YTD. The most significant development of the week came from the new monetary policy framework that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell unveiled, [...]

2020-08-31T11:22:50-05:00August 31st, 2020|

Show Me The Money

Last Week: Mega-cap tech stocks carried the S&P 500 to a new record high, with Apple accounting for 60% of the 0.7% weekly gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite jumped 2.65% and is now up 26.07% for 2020. The breadth of the market needed a tic-tac as decliners outnumbered advancers by almost 2-1. The Russell 2000 declined -1.61%, as small stocks remained -6.95% year-to-date. The impasse over further Federal coronavirus relief continued, [...]

2020-08-24T11:00:40-05:00August 24th, 2020|

30 for 30 Optimism

Last Week: The S&P 500 gained 0.64% to finish at 3372.85, just fractionally below the record close of 3386.15 set on February 19 of this year. It briefly reached an all-time intra-day high Wednesday, before dipping lower later in the afternoon. Both the bond market and gold had difficult weeks, with the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury jumping 15 basis points to 0.71% and the yellow metal sliding 3.6% from its [...]

2020-08-17T09:46:04-05:00August 17th, 2020|

TINA Clock Tick-Tock

Last Week: The market continued to rebound fueled by better than expected corporate earnings, hope for another round of helicopter money from the government, and optimism over COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics development. Reality Check: 1) Second quarter earnings are tracking to post the largest decline since the financial crisis at -33.8%. Third quarter earnings will also drop double-digits from 2019 levels. 2) The bipartisan support that enabled the swift passage of [...]

2020-08-10T11:05:12-05:00August 10th, 2020|

Fab Five Keep Winning

Last Week: The glass is half empty: For Q2 2020, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -35.7%. If -35.7% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q4 2008 (-69.1%). The glass is half full: 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 69% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If [...]

2020-08-03T17:50:20-05:00August 3rd, 2020|

Tighten the Knot on your Bathing Suit

Last Week: Earnings season is underway with 26% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported actual results for Q2 2020. The good news is that the percentage of companies reporting actual EPS above estimates (81%) is above the five-year average, with companies reporting earnings that are 11.4% above the estimates, which is also above the five-year average. The same holds true for revenues as the percentage of companies reporting [...]

2020-07-27T12:43:19-05:00July 27th, 2020|
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