Kuby’s Commentary

Strait Talk

Last Week Investor optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace agreement and wild animal spirits over SpaceX drove the market higher despite a more hawkish-than-expected debut from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Stocks surged Monday after the U.S. and Iran announced an...

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Small-Caps Soar, SpaceX, & the War

Last Week The stock market started trading below ground level but finished in outer space. Developments in the war set the negative tone early in the week, as President Trump threatened a renewed barrage and the Iranians shot down a U.S. military helicopter. On a...

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Gravity Returns

Last Week After months of defying bad news, gravity finally caught up with Wall Street last week, as investors reacted to a stronger-than-expected jobs report, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff noise, and weakness in Technology shares. Most of the damage came on...

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Peace Train Rally

Last Week During the Vietnam War, Cat Steven’s wrote the optimistic tune “Peace Train”, suggesting that “something good has begun”. Wall Street has jumped on board that train, believing the party line that the framework to end the conflict with Iran and restore...

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Whistling Past the Worries

Last Week The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low in May as surging gas prices and renewed inflationary pressures intensified affordability concerns. The peace negotiations showed little sign of progress, and government bond yields...

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What the Kinks Said

Last Week In the 1970s the US suffered through two energy crises, first in 1973 and then again in 1979. During that 7-year time span the stock market sputtered with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining from over 1003 to 824. The 1979 oil crisis, sometimes...

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Winning Streaks

Last Week The stock market and the Chicago Cubs are setting records and on winning streaks, fueled by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, upbeat earnings, particularly from the Technology sector, and clutch hitting. The S&P 500 gained 2.7%, the Russell 2000...

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Earnings Matters and Falsely Talking

Last Week The stock market marched to new record highs as a barrage of strong earnings reports from Big Tech firms outweighed a hawkish and divided Federal Reserve policy decision, a spike in oil prices, and continued uncertainty around the path to peace in the Middle...

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Not So Strait Forward

Last Week Despite peace talks stalling out and oil prices surging, the financial markets remained stable. Strong corporate earnings reports and solid economic data offset the war news. S&P 500 blended earnings for the quarter increased to 15.1% from 13.0% the week...

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Risk-On Reverie

Last Week It was a “risk on” party across the financial markets. The S&P 500 gained 4.5%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.85, and the Russell 2000 added 5.6%. Advancing issues more than tripled the number of declining issues, as the Technology sector soared 8.4% while...

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