Kuby’s Commentary

Tweeting Away the Complacency

Last Week: “He rocks in the White House all day long Hoppin' and a-boppin' and singing his song All the little traders on Wall Street Love to hear the President go tweet-tweet-tweet” Adapted from the Bobby Day classic “Rockin Robin” These are strange times indeed that we live in. Last Sunday around noon President Trump tweeted that the trade negotiations with the Chinese were going too slowly and that the tariff [...]

2019-05-15T14:53:13-05:00May 13th, 2019|

Be Attentive When Others Are Complacent

Last Week: First quarter corporate earnings continued to hop over the low bar that was set as positive earnings surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors (led by the Health Care sector) were responsible for a decrease in the overall earnings decline to 0.8% from 2.3% the week earlier. The market inched up to new record levels on Tuesday, however the unanimous decision by the Fed to leave rates unchanged on [...]

2019-05-13T11:37:20-05:00May 6th, 2019|

First Quarter Porridge Warms Up

Last Week: Concerns that the porridge was getting too cold appear to have been unwarranted. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit record highs as strong earnings reports and economic reports fueled investor enthusiasm. Earnings season is about half way over and so far, 80% of companies have reported results that exceeded expectations. The expected decline in S&P 500 first quarter earnings is now down to 2.3% from 3.9% the [...]

2019-05-13T11:37:52-05:00April 29th, 2019|

Earnings and Unicorns

Last Week: The headline in “The Trader” section of Barron’s was “The Market Did Nearly Nothing This Week”, as the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% in holiday-shortened trading.  What little action there was in the market was focused on the IPOs of “Unicorns” (companies with private market valuations over a $1 billion). It seems like an incredible leap of faith to assign multi-billion-dollar valuations on those high-growth money-losing companies. I must have [...]

2019-04-22T08:43:35-05:00April 22nd, 2019|

Bull Bear or Tiger

Last Week: The market treaded water until Friday morning, when a flurry of positive news stories invigorated Wall Street. Strong Chinese exports and money supply growth, record earnings form JPMorgan, a well-received DIS streaming analyst meeting, and a big $50B oil merger all contributed to the bullish mood. Earlier in the week trading volume was at its lowest level of 2019, as Sports betting provided more excitement than the stock market [...]

2019-04-15T09:52:11-05:00April 15th, 2019|

7 Day Rally

Last Week: The porridge heated up enough to nourish the Goldilocks rally for another week. Stronger than expected economic data from China on Monday and a solid U.S. jobs report on Friday were the bookends to continued perceived progress on the trade front during the week. The S&P 500 gained 2.06% to close at 2892, which is less than 2% short of its all-time high set in September. Although trading volume [...]

2019-04-08T08:08:10-05:00April 8th, 2019|

End of Quarter Lyft

Last Week: The previous Friday the market had dropped sharply as the Ten-Year Treasury rate reach a yield less than the Three-Month Treasury rate, stoking recessionary concerns and triggering sell programs. By Monday afternoon, those concerns were old news, and the focus returned to the dovish pivot by the Fed and the prospects for an impending trade deal with China. Following meetings late in the week, U.S. officials said China had [...]

2019-04-01T13:33:40-05:00April 1st, 2019|

It’s a Mad Mad Mad Inversion

Last Week: The last six months have certainly been “interesting”. A dramatic rally in January and February recovered about most of the horrific losses of October- December, followed by a brief nasty sell-off to kick off March which quickly reversed into a Mad March bounce which lasted until Friday’s swoon, which left the S&P 500 down 0.8% for the week. Whereas the market was responding to policy issues (monetary and trade) [...]

2019-04-01T13:13:22-05:00March 25th, 2019|

Mad March Bounce

Last Week: The global bounce-back equity rally resumed, as the S&P 500 posted its best week since November by gaining 2.89%. The narrative remained the same with accommodative monetary policy, subdued inflation, reduced trade tensions, and aggressive stimulus programs in China. The economic data was tepid as durable goods, new home sales, industrial production, and the Empire Manufacturing Index all came in slightly below expectations. January retail sales exceeded expectations, but [...]

2019-03-18T09:42:42-05:00March 18th, 2019|

Cold Porridge

Last Week: The temperature of the global economic data porridge was cold enough to nudge the stock market pendulum towards risk-off, as the ECB and China both reduced growth forecasts while the U.S. jobs report was downright frigid. Concerns shifted from monetary tightening by the big bad Fed to the prospects of an impending global recession. Things were not all quiet on the eastern front, as North Korea has rebuilt its [...]

2019-03-11T10:04:14-05:00March 11th, 2019|