Kuby’s Commentary
Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer of North Star Investment Management, writes a weekly commentary on market and economic trends.
Here is a sampling of recent commentary:
The China Seesaw: Short Shallow Swings
Last Week: Once again the market movement seemed to be dictated by the tone of the trade talks. Whereas there were no actual developments, a Chinese request for “calm” in the trade war and the absence of any inflammatory tweets from the White House combined to lift...
The Tweet Hit the Fan
Last Week: My commentary from the previous week finished on an upbeat note, “The tone on trade improved over the weekend after President Trump said that Tim Cook made a “very compelling argument” that the tariffs on Chinese imports gave Samsung an edge over Apple....
Recession Obsession
Last Week: On Wednesday night I got into an Uber and greeted my driver by saying that it was a beautiful evening. “Yes” he responded, “but the 2-10 curve has inverted and there is a recession coming in 18 months”. I’m not joking. That actually happened. The market had...
Much Ado
Last Week: There is much ado about the plummeting interest rate offered by the Ten-Year Treasury. Many experts are interpreting those declining rates at as harbinger of an impending recession. It’s interesting to take note that we have seen this pattern twice before...
October 2018 Reprise? Let’s Hope Not
Last Week: The first movement of August 2019 sounded like a reprise of the atonal first stanza of October 2018, with Fed and Trade policies combining to hurt the ears and wallets of investors. On Wednesday the Fed delivered a 25-basis point reduction in the target...
FOMOTINA Rally Resumes
Last Week: As we approach half-time of earnings season, the usual pattern of companies reporting results that are above estimates is unfolding. Those positive “surprises” are responsible for the decrease in the expected overall earnings decline to -2.6% from -3.4%...
Rally Pauses with a Whiff of Fear
Last Week: The news flow created slightly more fear than greed, as Fed officials talked down the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut and President Trump on Tuesday reiterated his threat to impose further tariffs on Chinese imports. Earnings season got off to a...
FOMOTINA Rally
Last Week: FOMOTINA: A rally fueled by the combination of Fear Of Missing Out with There Is No Alternative. Another week of gains for the S&P 500, which advanced 0.78% to top 3000 and close at a record high. The narrative (song) remained the same, as Fed Chairman...
G20 Relief Party with Fireworks
Last Week: The G20 Relief Party lasted through the Independence Day Holiday, with the market advancing for six straight days to reach a new record high on Wednesday. The very light volume suggested that many traders headed to their beach houses early in the week, and...
Hey June, You Took a Sad Song and Made it Better
Last Week: The twin narrative of a dovish Fed and optimism surrounding a potential trade deal at the G20 spilled over into small cap stocks (hallelujah!) as the Russell 2000 jumped 1.09%. The S&P 500 slipped modestly for the week, but posted its best June since...
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The North Star InvestCast aims to guide investors on actionable insights in the securities markets. Hosted by Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer of North Star Investment Management Corp.