Kuby’s Commentary
Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer of North Star Investment Management, writes a weekly commentary on market and economic trends.
Here is a sampling of recent commentary:
Not an Investor Was Stirring
Conventional Wisdom Twas the week after Christmas and trading was light. Stocks traded higher with a record in sight. The Goldilocks economy overcame the doomsayers' fears. The Santa Claus rally kept rolling right into the New Year. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the...
The Bulls are Back
A Recession That Never Was For most of 2023, the consensus amongst the talking heads of the market was that there was an impending recession and that interest rates would stay higher for longer to combat stubborn inflation. On the other hand, the economic data kept...
Santa Claus Rally
Clear Path to Cuts The foundation of the bear case for the economy and the financial markets during 2022 and 2023 was the “higher for longer” mantra from the Federal Reserve. In other words, the Fed’s tight monetary policy would lead to a deep recession before...
Jolting Higher
Healthy Equilibrium The data from the Labor Department further illuminated an economy on a path back to normal conditions, otherwise known as the soft-landing proposition. On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed that U.S. job...
You Get What You Need
Long and Winding The S&P 500 reached its highest level in more than a year on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that interest rates have peaked. “We’re getting what we wanted to get, we now have the ability to move carefully,” which...
Tasty Turkey Trading
Turbocharged The stock market provided additional reasons for investors to be thankful, as the rally continued for the fourth straight week. The S&P 500 tacked on 1%, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, the Russell 2000 added 0.5%, and all the sectors except Oil & Gas...
Goldilocks at the Thanksgiving Table
Wild Ride We would like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. At North Star, we are deeply thankful for our wonderful clients that we have the pleasure and honor of serving. We are also thankful for the potential return to the “not too hot and not too cold”...
Fed Seesaw
Laundry List There has been a laundry list of factors that have heavily influenced the trends in the financial markets over the past few years. Topping that list would be the COVID-19 pandemic and related supply-chain disruptions, closely followed by the increasingly...
It’s a Profit Deal
North Star's Premise Proven Investors finally got a taste of money, tasting much sweeter than wine, as rising corporate earnings and declining interest rates gave the markets a kiss. The bond market benefitted from slightly soft employment data, particularly...
Higher Than Necessary
The blog post discusses the recent market correction, with the S&P 500 dropping 10% from its 52-week high, led by losses in various sectors. Despite strong earnings results, concerns arise regarding personal spending relying on savings, and the potential for accelerating earnings growth remains a bullish case for equities. Rising gold prices are attributed to geopolitical turmoil and an increase in U.S. Treasury debt offerings. The post anticipates a volatile week ahead with a focus on the Federal Reserve’s policy, employment data, and corporate earnings, all while acknowledging the ongoing impact of global geopolitical events on investor sentiment.
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The North Star InvestCast aims to guide investors on actionable insights in the securities markets. Hosted by Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer of North Star Investment Management Corp.