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LRN

Credit is Money

Last Week: The economic data was fairly consistent with expectations, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate of fourth-quarter GDP increased to 4.3% from the last estimate in February of 4.1%. Personal Income declined 7.1% month over month, after jumping 10% in...

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The Pump is Primed

Last Week: The economic outlook continued to brighten, with the pandemic subsiding and the potent combination of monetary and fiscal policies priming the growth pump. The Big Bad Bond market growled as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 1.64%, hitting...

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Volatility Spike Three-Peat

Markets: It was the worst week in the market since March, with the S&P 500 sinking 5.6% and small caps faring even worse shedding 6.22%. Volatility surged with the VIX spiking 38% to match its highest level since June. The chart below shows the percentage changes...

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Hopes, Concerns, and Stimulus

Last Week: From Dictionary.com: Stimulus (stim-yuh-luhs), noun. In economics, a stimulus is a government injection of money into an economy and intended to spur (stimulate) economic growth. If William Shakespeare were around in 2020 he might have penned “to stimulate,...

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Consumer Low Market High

Last Week: The S&P 500 gained 3.26% to set another record high, while the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury jumped 9 basis points to 0.73%, its highest level since June 10th. Tech stocks continued to surge, with the Nasdaq composite adding 3.39% and is now up an...

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The Sun Also Rises

Last Week: Earnings season produced no surprises with 9% of the S&P 500 companies having reported results which were consistent with forecasts for a 44% decline in profits for the quarter. If -44.0% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest...

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End of Quarter Fireworks

Last Week: Despite the general absence of fireworks (Mount Rushmore and other exceptions noted), the market enjoyed a festive pre-holiday rally with the S&P 500 gaining 4.02% and the Nasdaq Composite reaching a new record high. Three cheers for the Red, White, and...

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Will Fed Treat Market Fever?

Last Week: The Stock market suffered its worst losses since the 2008 financial crisis with the S&P 500 plunging 11.49%. The decline wiped out all the gains from the last leg of the rally that started in early October. I’m not a chartist, but it is interesting to...

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Rally Interrupted on Repeat

Last Week: I could just repost last week’s commentary and just change the specific numbers as the storyline was essentially a rerun. In fact, I will: The stock market party was disrupted as the Coronavirus upset the apple cart. Corporate earnings reports were strong...

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