Last Week: Treasury yields rose sharply during the week after signs that U.S. consumer spending remained strong and on receding trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Additionally, both the CPI and PPI showed some signs of inflation. The “Crowd” got caught all-in on the recession trade, long bonds and stocks that were categorized as recession-resistant, and a dramatic rotation into cyclical and value stocks was unleashed. The Russell 2000 Value [...]
Last Week: The economic releases were consistent with a slowing economy in August, with the manufacturing ISM cracking below the 50 level (contraction) and the BLS jobs report coming in at 130,000 versus an estimate of 158,000. Neither of those reports should be cause for alarm, in a fact with a longer-term perspective the jobs data remains very positive: Whereas a sub-50 in the ISM report suggests contraction, it is also [...]
Last Week: Once again the market movement seemed to be dictated by the tone of the trade talks. Whereas there were no actual developments, a Chinese request for “calm” in the trade war and the absence of any inflammatory tweets from the White House combined to lift traders’ moods and triggered a 2.8% rise in the S&P 500. The month of August followed the seesaw pattern of the previous 18 months, [...]