Monthly Archives: September 2019

The Dialogue Continues

Last Week: The S&P 500 declined 1.01% and the Russell 2000 sank 2.52% as trade, IPO, impeachment, and economic concerns dictated the mood on Wall Street. The yield on the Ten-Year Treasury slipped 9 basis points to 1.68% and the Dollar gained 0.5% to test its recent highs. The U.S.-China trade “dialogue” (I think it’s a mistake to call it a “war”) seemingly took a turn for the worse as a [...]

2019-09-30T10:07:11-05:00September 30th, 2019|

Resilience or Indifference = Equilibrium

Last Week: There were numerous potentially troubling storylines starting with the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure on Monday and finishing with reports that the China had canceled a visit to Montana farms on Friday. In the middle, a shortage of cash in the banking system led to a spike in the overnight repurchase rates to over 10%, and a FOMC decision to cut rates but with growing dissent on future  [...]

2019-09-23T09:14:52-05:00September 23rd, 2019|

Dream Week for Value Stocks

Last Week: Treasury yields rose sharply during the week after signs that U.S. consumer spending remained strong and on receding trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Additionally, both the CPI and PPI showed some signs of inflation.  The “Crowd” got caught all-in on the recession trade, long bonds and stocks that were categorized as recession-resistant, and a dramatic rotation into cyclical and value stocks was unleashed. The Russell 2000 Value [...]

2019-09-16T09:26:52-05:00September 16th, 2019|

Ebb & Flow and a Field Goal

Last Week: The economic releases were consistent with a slowing economy in August, with the manufacturing ISM cracking below the 50 level (contraction) and the BLS jobs report coming in at 130,000 versus an estimate of 158,000. Neither of those reports should be cause for alarm, in a fact with a longer-term perspective the jobs data remains very positive: Whereas a sub-50 in the ISM report suggests contraction, it is also [...]

2019-09-09T09:53:07-05:00September 9th, 2019|

The China Seesaw: Short Shallow Swings

Last Week: Once again the market movement seemed to be dictated by the tone of the trade talks. Whereas there were no actual developments, a Chinese request for “calm” in the trade war and the absence of any inflammatory tweets from the White House combined to lift traders’ moods and triggered a 2.8% rise in the S&P 500. The month of August followed the seesaw pattern of the previous 18 months, [...]

2019-09-03T09:50:46-05:00September 3rd, 2019|