Last Week
The markets in 2025 are unfolding to be a series of Trump bumps and slumps. Unfortunately, the combination of the “Big, Beautiful, Bill” and a Testy Tariff Tweet sent the markets into another tailspin. Following Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt on Monday, trading got off to a rough start. Attention then turned to Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” – a sweeping, multi-trillion-dollar tax reform package spanning over 1,000 pages, that passed the U.S. House by one vote. The bond market sold off sharply due to concerns that the bill would balloon the U.S. fiscal deficit, and the 20-year Treasury note auction on Wednesday received tepid demand. The trade war was back clouding the markets in front of the holiday weekend as Trump threatened new tariffs on iPhones and a 50% tariff on the European Union. Apple shares dropped 7.6% and are now down 22% for the year.
For the week, the benchmark S&P 500 lost 2.6%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.5%, and the Russell 2000 sank 3.5%. Every industry sector was in the red, and declining issues quadrupled advancing issues. Gold rallied sharply as the dollar slumped 2%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury increased 7 basis points to 4.51%.
On the Chicago Sports Scene, the Cubs keep winning, the Sox keep losing, and the Sky are off to a horrible start.
This Week
The markets were closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.
Will we slump or bump?
Over the weekend, President Trump announced a delay until July for the Tariffs announced on the E.U. 48 hours earlier, sending the stock market in a handsome morning rally.
On the economic data front, the Census Bureau will release its durable goods report for April with expectations for a sharp drop following March’s spike.
There will be a few significant quarterly earnings releases, most notably Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday and Costco (COST) on Thursday.
Inflation will be in focus on Friday as the BEA releases its personal consumption index for April. The recent trend has been favorable, and the forecast is for a 2.2% year-over-year increase.
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