Last Week
It was a week of delicate footwork in the markets, as investors danced through a tariff tango of delayed duties, legal reversals, and geopolitical jabs. Following the long weekend, stocks got off to a spirited start on Tuesday after President Trump postponed the 50% tariffs he had announced just days earlier. On Wednesday, the U.S. Court of International Trade added to the optimism by ruling that many existing tariffs were improperly enacted, only for an appeals court to reverse the mood later that day by pausing the decision. By Friday, the tone soured further after the President accused China of failing to uphold its end of the trade agreement.
The rest of the news was positive, with strong earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), a tame inflation reading from the personal consumption expenditures price index, and a bounce in consumer confidence. Tuesday’s gains held despite the seesaw trading the rest of the week, leaving the S&P 500 up 1.9%, the Nasdaq Composite ahead 2.0%, and the Russell 2000 1.3% in the green. Advancing issues doubled declining issues, with only the Oil & Gas sector slipping, and Tech stocks leading the rally. The bond market enjoyed a modest rally, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropping 9 basis points to 4.42%. The Dollar was slightly higher, while Gold slipped 2%.
“Sell in May and go away” proved to be bad advice this year. The S&P 500 soared +6.2%, marking its biggest monthly advance since November 2023, as markets fully recovered from the tariff shock delivered on “Liberation Day” (or “Obliteration Day”) in early April. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and this tariff stew is still simmering. We encourage investors to review their holdings to make sure they are consistent with their risk appetite.
On the Chicago Sports Scene, the Cubs continue to win, and the Sox continue to lose. In the WNBA, the Sky came to life to win a few games, but it still looks like it could be a long season at the Wintrust Arena.
This Week
The tariff tango continues this week, with the administration returning to its policy playbook to add new twists to the trade narrative.
Regarding economic data, we will get the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday, and the BLS jobs report for May on Friday. The forecast calls for softening data, with the market hoping for a “Goldilocks” reading of around 125,000 new jobs created.
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