Powell's Policy Persists On Friday, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Chairman Powell delivered the message that whereas tapering is coming, the Delta variant makes the timing uncertain. He also made it clear that the plan to taper does not suggest that any...
Currency, Covid, Chaos, and (Yes) Catalysts In a week of troubling headlines, we take notice that the Dollar reached its highest level of 2021. We monitor the strength of the greenback as a proxy for the world’s perception of the attractiveness and safety of U.S....
'Stunning Loss of Confidence' So far 2021 has provided an incredibly smooth ride for investors, but the news flow last week suggested some turbulence on the horizon. The Delta Covid-19 variant cases and deaths surged, both consumer and producer prices spiked, consumer...
What You Need to Know Reflecting on the major market-moving storylines, the classic 1977 Meatloaf song, “Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad” comes to mind: (1) corporate earnings were great; (2) the jobs report was very strong; and (3) BUT sadly Covid-19 cases are surging. On...
Corporate Earnings Going for Gold; Economic Data Reaches for Silver February 17th is a special day; in that, it is the birthday of both Michael Jordan and my wife. It also marked the top of the Chinese stock market, which has subsequently nosedived over 25%, including...
Never-Ending Rally Back on Track Despite the scary headlines, the “Fear Index” continues to falter. We concluded last week’s commentary noting that “U.S. stock futures followed the global markets lower over the weekend, and the “Fear Index” (VIX) jumped 6% going into...
Last Week: Whereas the major headline indexes set record highs again on Monday, the undertone of the market continues to soften, with declining issues increasingly outnumbering advancing issues. In fact, excluding the Fab FAANG Five (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix,...
Last Week: Early in the week, the market was singing “Mama Mia, here I go again!”, as COVID-19 resurfaced. Those fears were particularly apparent on Thursday when Japan declared a state of emergency and announced there would be no spectators at the Summer Olympics. On...
Last Week: We hope that everyone enjoyed their holiday weekend. One highlight at North Star was watching Joey Chestnut break his own world record at the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4th after devouring his 76th hot dog and bun in front of a packed...
The S&P 500 Total Return Index gained 8.55% for the second quarter and is up 15.25% for the year. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.8% during the same quarter and is down 0.8% for the year. The stock market’s strength during the latest quarter was...
Last Week: What a difference a weekend makes. The selling pressure from the previous Friday vanished into thin air, and a bounce-back rally kicked in on Monday morning that continued throughout the week. The S&P 500 closed Friday at another record high, posting...
Last Week: Chairman of the Federal Reserve is near the top of my list of extraordinary stressful jobs that I would hate to have. Currently, it would fall somewhere between a war-zone surgeon and an undercover narcotics officer on the Chicago Police Department. Poor...
Last Week: Since the end of April when Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed inflation pressures as being temporary, “transitory” has become the new bullish buzzword for the stock and bond markets. The 5% year-over-year increase in the consumer price index reported on...
Last Week: “The heat is on, it’s on (Wall and Main) street, the heat is on, on, on." The economy has been rebounding sharply, and with that rebound, there has been a surge in inflationary pressures and related concerns over interest rate increases. As such, the market...
Last Week: Equity markets ground higher, fueled by (1) good earnings from economy re-opening companies and from several residential real estate-related companies; (2) a benign bond market that seems comfortable with the Fed’s ‘inflation is transitory’ party line; (3)...
Last Week: In our previous commentary we highlighted the FOMC meeting minutes, noting that “investors will scour the transcript for any cracks in the Fed’s conviction to keep short-term rates near-zero for the foreseeable future.” The surprising dialogue about...
Last Week: Mr. Market, like Disneyland’s Mr. Toad, had a wild ride. Toad, borrowed from “The Wind in the Willows”, regularly becomes obsessed with current fads, only to abandon them abruptly. That sounds like a reasonably good description of most of the trading...
Last Week: The employment report for April released on Friday indicated that there were 266,000 new jobs added, versus the approximately one million that was forecasted. Additionally, March’s number was reduced by 246,000 jobs, suggesting that there are approximately...
Last Week: The Stock market seems to have become comfortably numb to good news, as equities essentially treaded water despite a plethora of good news from economic data, monetary policy, and corporate earnings. The S&P 500 reached another record high on Thursday...
To all of our new subscribers: welcome! Last Week: Corporate earnings reports and the economic releases both painted a rosy picture, but investors got a little prick in their portfolios from the thorny issue of how to pay for all the recent and proposed government...
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