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Kuby’s Commentary

Credit is Money

Last Week: The economic data was fairly consistent with expectations, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate of fourth-quarter GDP increased to 4.3% from the last estimate in February of 4.1%. Personal Income declined 7.1% month over month, after jumping 10% in...

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$5 Trillion Brick House

Last Week: The Big Bad Bond Market once again bared its jagged teeth, as the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury climbed another 10 basis points to breach the 1.75% level for the first time in 14 months. The stock market showed signs of fear as the Dow and S&P fell...

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The Pump is Primed

Last Week: The economic outlook continued to brighten, with the pandemic subsiding and the potent combination of monetary and fiscal policies priming the growth pump. The Big Bad Bond market growled as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 1.64%, hitting...

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Big Bad Bond Market

Last Week: On Monday all 11 sectors rallied and the S&P posted its biggest daily gain since June, as the combination over the previous weekend of the positive vaccine news from Johnson & Johnson, the approval of the stimulus plan by the House, and a decline of...

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Too Much Good News

Last Week: We were often reminded during the recent challenging economic period that the market climbs the wall of worry.  The inverse proposition might caution that the market can slide down the chute of good cheer. Following up on our most recent commentary, the...

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Arc of Modest Optimism

Last Week: Where are we and where do we go from here? Reflecting on the current status of the economy and markets, I find myself swaying back and forth on the optimism/pessimism pendulum. Although on balance trending more towards the arc of optimism. Certain data...

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Rally, Rinse, Repeat

Last Week: In the Kuby’s Commentary version of “Rally, Rinse, Repeat,” we once again report that the market set new record highs, the economic data was mixed, the battle with COVID-19 raged on, and the politicians were mired in debate over the size and scope of...

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The Bulls are Back

Last Week: The Bulls are back, and I am not talking about the Chicago Bulls. The stock market rebounded from its brief slump to post its best weekly gains since November, with the S&P 500 bouncing 4.65%. Small cap stocks continued their recent surge, as the...

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Bubble Trouble

Last Week: Trading was extremely volatile with the VIX surging over 50% to 33.09 and the S&P 500 shedding 3.31%. It seems worth noting that these spikes in volatility and sell-offs in equities occur regularly and should not be alarming. What is alarming is the...

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New Administration, New Records

Last Week: The stock market reached a new record high on Thursday, fueled by optimism over the Biden administration’s priorities of coordinating a national response to the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing payments to struggling individuals and businesses, and continuing...

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