The S&P 500 Total Return Index gained 6.2% for the quarter while the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined 1.6% during this period. The stock market’s strength during the quarter was driven by more hopeful expectations for the economy in 2021. Over the course of the quarter, estimates for 2021 GDP consistently increased from 4% to over 6.5%. Corporate earnings reports during the quarter handily exceeded estimates, finishing 24% EPS. There [...]
If anyone thought the economic review was mundane, then 2020 should make you reevaluate that point of view. The fourth quarter of 2020 was perhaps THE most interesting quarter in the economy in modern history. It is quite challenging to develop an economic outlook for 2021 given these extraordinary times. So, let’s start by reviewing the fourth quarter of 2020. Economic Update Review of the major aspects of the economy which include [...]
The S&P 500 Total Return Index finished up 8.93% for the quarter and is up 5.57% for the year. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.62%% for the quarter and is up 6.72% for the year. This has been a historically volatile year for the stock market. Investors are clearly focused on the spread of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the effect on the global economy. In addition, the U.S. election [...]
The S&P 500 Total Return Index gained 4.3% for the quarter and is up 18.5% for the year. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 2.4% for the quarter and is up 4.7% for the year. Markets responded to the potential progress in trade negotiations and the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. These issues will continue to be important in the third quarter. In addition, investors [...]
The first quarter of 2019 started strong for both the stock and bond markets. Large cap U.S. stocks, measured by the S&P 500 index, were up 13.6% for the quarter, offsetting much of their decline in the previous quarter, while small cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, rose 14.6% for the quarter. Foreign stocks again trailed the US indexes - the FTSE Developed all cap ex-US index (Europe, UK, Australia [...]
The financial markets were volatile in the final quarter of the year as investors worried about the trade negotiations with China, the Fed raising rates too aggressively and the potential for a slowing global economy in 2019. Interest rates fell sharply the last three months of the year; the 10-year treasury started the quarter yielding 3.07% and finished the quarter at 2.69%. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was up 1.6% [...]
The U.S. economy continued to show momentum during the Third Quarter of 2018. Corporate earnings were strong, unemployment declined, inflation remains tame and most indicators show improving financial conditions. The stock market had a good quarter, as measured by the S&P 500, with a 7.2% return. Small stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000, returned 3.13% during the last three months. Growth stocks continued to outpace Value stocks – the Russell 2000 [...]