Kuby’s Commentary
Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer of North Star Investment Management, writes a weekly commentary on market and economic trends.
Here is a sampling of recent commentary:
Bad Week for the Bears
Last Week: The market rallied towards record highs as the corporate earnings, trade, and Fed headlines were all somewhat sanguine. Corporate earnings continued to modestly exceed the low bar that was set for the third quarter, as the blended (combines actual results...
The Good, the Bad and the Politics
Last Week: The Good: Third quarter corporate earnings are off to a handsome start, with more than 14% of S&P 500 companies having reported through Friday, FactSet data shows that 81% posted earnings that beat analyst expectations. To be sure, the companies are...
Tweet Forecast
Last Week: In the summer of 1983, while I was preparing to enter the training program at Drexel Burnham Lambert, the hilarious comedy “Trading Places” was released. The climax of the movie is the year-end release of the USDA report on the orange crop forecast, as all...
A Rock and a Rollercoaster
Last Week: If you crawled under a rock on Sunday night and emerged on Friday afternoon and checked in on the markets, you would come to the conclusion that not much had happened. The S&P 500 finished down 0.33%, while the Dollar, Gold , and VIX (Volatility Index)...
The Dialogue Continues
Last Week: The S&P 500 declined 1.01% and the Russell 2000 sank 2.52% as trade, IPO, impeachment, and economic concerns dictated the mood on Wall Street. The yield on the Ten-Year Treasury slipped 9 basis points to 1.68% and the Dollar gained 0.5% to test its...
Resilience or Indifference = Equilibrium
Last Week: There were numerous potentially troubling storylines starting with the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure on Monday and finishing with reports that the China had canceled a visit to Montana farms on Friday. In the middle, a shortage of cash in the...
Dream Week for Value Stocks
Last Week: Treasury yields rose sharply during the week after signs that U.S. consumer spending remained strong and on receding trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Additionally, both the CPI and PPI showed some signs of inflation. The “Crowd” got caught all-in...
Ebb & Flow and a Field Goal
Last Week: The economic releases were consistent with a slowing economy in August, with the manufacturing ISM cracking below the 50 level (contraction) and the BLS jobs report coming in at 130,000 versus an estimate of 158,000. Neither of those reports should be cause...
The China Seesaw: Short Shallow Swings
Last Week: Once again the market movement seemed to be dictated by the tone of the trade talks. Whereas there were no actual developments, a Chinese request for “calm” in the trade war and the absence of any inflammatory tweets from the White House combined to lift...
The Tweet Hit the Fan
Last Week: My commentary from the previous week finished on an upbeat note, “The tone on trade improved over the weekend after President Trump said that Tim Cook made a “very compelling argument” that the tariffs on Chinese imports gave Samsung an edge over Apple....
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Market Commentary by Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer of North Star Investment Management