Last Week
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. The S&P 500 kicked off the second half of 2024 with its best weekly performance in 8 weeks. Once again, however, the rally was driven by the same boss, Mr. Big Tech (not Bruce Springsteen). The S&P jumped 1.9%, fueled by a 3.5% surge by the Nasdaq. But don’t get fooled again! There were as many declining as advancing issues, and the Equal Weight S&P 500 Index was down 0.4%. The Mid-cap and small-cap indexes also lost over 1%. This historic period of performance dispersion continues to drive the valuation gap between large growth stocks and pretty much everything else to historic levels. For example, the IVW (iShares S&P 500 Growth) trades at an average P/E of 34.8, 5.5x sales, and 8.9x book value, with a dividend yield of 0.7%. At the other end of the valuation spectrum, the IJS (iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value) trades at an average P/E of 13.5, 0.6x sales, 1.2x book value, with a 2.8% dividend yield. Momentum rules the moment, but valuation has proven to be the true boss in the long run.
Enthusiasm over Artificial Intelligence has propelled the momentum stocks, while concerns over high interest rates have been weighing down many other sectors. The recent economic data makes a compelling case for the Federal Reserve to commence interest rate cuts in the very near future. Not only has the inflation data been tame, but the labor market is showing obvious signs of weakening. Nonfarm payroll employment for April and May were both revised down sharply, while the June jobs report showed an increase in the unemployment rate with slowing wage growth. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped seven basis points to 4.27%, and the 2-year rate dropped to 4.6%. The dollar weakened, leading to a rise in gold and crude oil prices.
There are still no Chicago sports teams with winning records, although we take note that our soccer franchise, the Red Stars, is at least in the middle of the pack. The Bulls’ roster overhaul continued over the weekend, marked by a three-team trade of DeMar DeRozan to the Sacramento Kings.
This Week
The big news will come on Thursday with the release of the eagerly anticipated consumer price index (CPI) report. The consensus calls for a 0.1% monthly increase following May’s unchanged reading. If the downward trend continues over the next few months, then the CPI could be comfortably below 3% by the end of the summer. So far, the thorn in the side of inflation doves has been shelter costs, which will likely be a strong area of focus among market commentators on Thursday. The Fed’s contractionary policy has certainly had its intended impact on many of the CPI’s more “sticky” non-shelter components (see graph below). Still, shelter costs have remained more stubborn than other components. Therefore, we think any weakness in the shelter component would drive a bond market rally and an overall more “risk-on” equity markets tone.
Earnings season will also commence, with the big banks reporting results later in the week. The consensus calls for S&P 500 earnings to rise 8.8% for the quarter.
Lower interest rates and higher corporate earnings are a sunny environment for financial assets, including value-priced small caps.
The stocks mentioned above may be holdings in our mutual funds. For more information, please visit www.nsinvestfunds.com.