Last Week
Trading started on an upbeat note on Monday after President Trump suggested the war in Iran was nearing an end. Trading closed on Friday at recent lows as the war raged on with no end in sight. Nothing else mattered.
The S&P 500 lost 2.1%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2%, while small caps outperformed, gaining 0.5%. It was the fifth consecutive week of losses in the stock market. The turbulence beneath the surface was less dramatic than the headlines, with declining issues outnumbering advancing issues only modestly. The lion’s share of the damage came from the Technology sector, which suffered a 4.8% drubbing. The Oil & Gas sector was the top performer, with a 6.2% increase, as crude prices continued to slog higher. The Dollar inched higher, and Gold slipped fractionally, continuing the trend during the war. Higher interest rates could be the primary factor in the currency and metals markets, as Treasury rates surged, with the yield on the 10-Year Treasury reaching 4.48%, its highest level since July 2025.
There was some good news for Chicago Sports Fans: the Fighting Illini advanced to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament.
This Week
Developments in the war will continue to move markets during shortened holiday trading.
There will be other news that matters, but will have limited impact. The most significant economic data release will be the March jobs report on Friday (with the financial markets closed in observance of Good Friday). Economists are expecting 56K job additions and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%. Earlier in the week, there will be a series of data releases, including consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, retail sales, and ADP employment figures.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking on Monday. Still, he is likely to reiterate that there is too much uncertainty to make any meaningful adjustments to the forecast or modify monetary policy.
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