Last Week
What goes up (for six weeks in a row) has to come down (at least for a week), as the stock market’s spinning wheel has to go around. Wall Street traders’ heads were in the spin cycle, with a mixed bag of earnings reports and economic data. The S&P snapped its win streak with a modest decline, while small and mid-caps suffered larger losses, yet tech stocks still managed to post a modest gain.
The economic data was discouraging, as consumer sentiment slipped in October, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 68.9 this month, compared to a final reading of 70.1 in September. The report was a mixed bag, with some positives to offset the negative headline. “While inflation expectations have eased substantially since then, consumers continue to express frustration over high prices,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. “Still, long run business conditions lifted to its highest reading in six months, while current and expected personal finances both softened slightly.”
Softness also was reported in the real estate market. Following the recent rise in mortgage rates, existing home sales fell 1% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.84 million in September 2024, the lowest level since October 2010.
Corporate earnings were also a mixed bag. Positive surprises reported by companies in the Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors were offset by downward revisions in the Industrials, Health Care, and Energy sectors. Tesla was the star performer, posting its largest one-day gain in over a decade after reporting a strong quarter and an upbeat forecast.
Nevertheless, the blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the third quarter is 3.6% today, compared to 3.0% last week and 4.3% at the end of the third quarter (September 30). If 3.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.
Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year growth, led by the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy and Industrials sectors.
The bond market also blew a stiff headwind into the equity markets, as the yield on the 10-year Treasury increased 16 basis points to 4.23%, its highest level in three months.
For the week, the S&P (SP500) slipped -1%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%. Declining issues overwhelmed advancing issues by a factor of 3-1, with eight of the ten industry sectors finishing in the red and the small and mid-cap indexes sinking approximately 3%. Gold set another record high, while crude oil and the dollar also both posted modest gains.
As for the Chicago Sports Scene, the Bears played an outstanding second half versus the Commanders, but when the ball goes up, it’s going to come down. Just don’t leave a wide receiver alone in the end zone to catch it.
This Week
The Wall Street Spinning Wheel will be in fast rotation with key data on corporate earnings, economic growth, inflation, and the labor market. On the earnings front, 169 S&P 500 companies are reporting results, including five (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META) of the Magnificent 7. Those five companies represent almost 25% of the S&P 500’s market cap.
The economic calendar has the last two major reports before the election: a reading on the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge—the personal consumption expenditures price index—on Thursday and the October jobs report on Friday.
The stocks mentioned above may be holdings in our mutual funds. For more information, please visit www.nsinvestfunds.com.