Last Week: Legend has it that a young man ventured to inquire J.P. Morgan’s opinion as to the future course of the stock market. The alleged reply has become classic: “Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.” From February 2016 until February 2018 the...
- Archive posts -
BOOT
Chameleon on the Run
Last Week: Where have all the Bears gone? Or perhaps the long-established visual of Bulls and Bears should be replaced with a cluster of chameleons (it’s actually a starship of chameleons according to Wikipedia, but that sounds made-up). The same chameleons that were...
Wag the Dog Rally
Last Week: The market continued its recent rebound, as the narrative has shifted to include a more dovish Fed policy as well as a positive resolution of the trade war with China. The momentum-based trading models (are there any other trading models these days?) all...
Pessimism
Last Week: Pessimism has taken root, as the impact of the “trade war” on global economies has become manifest. In a sporting contest there is usually a winner and a loser. You strategize to beat your opponent. Global trade is not a sporting contest. Quite to the...
Bears Take a Bye Week
Last Week: In the NFL, the Chicago Bears had a bye on Sunday, which means they didn’t get to play. Apparently, the Wall Street Bears followed suit, as the S&P 500 staged an impressive 4.85% rally without meeting much resistance. It was the S&P 500’s best...
Downward Drift
Last Week: The market resumed its downward trend, with the S&P 500 shedding 1.61% and the Russell 2000 declining 1.42%. All ten sectors experienced losses, with Oil & Gas shares faring the worst as crude oil prices dropping for a record 12 straight days to...
Higher
Last Week: Another record high for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.93% and the Russell 2000 0.87%. There wasn’t much news, fake or otherwise, driving the action, and volume was light in the pre-holiday week trading. One might say the song remains the...
Turkey and Tiger
Last Week: The S&P 500 slipped 0.25%, the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury slid 10 basis points to 2.85%, while the U.S Dollar strengthened over 1% to a new 2018 high. The chart below shows the link between the strength in the dollar and the S&P this year,...
Goldilocks and the 74 Hot Dogs
Last Week: Goldilocks is still alive and well, as evidenced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics initial report on the labor situation in June, which was neither too hot nor too cold. While the unemployment rate increased slightly from 3.8% to 4.0%, the entire increase...
3% and No Panic
Last Week: The Ten-Year Treasury yield moved comfortably over 3%, rising 10 basis points to levels not seen since 2011, without any reaction from the stock market, as the S&P 500 declined a modest 0.54%. Smaller stocks continued their recent outperformance, with...
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