Last Week: The rally resumed as the S&P 500 gained 1.58% to close at another new record high. Most of the action took place on Monday and the first hour of trading on Tuesday, as stocks recovered their losses from the previous Friday and then tacked on an...
Last Week: I could just repost last week’s commentary and just change the specific numbers as the storyline was essentially a rerun. In fact, I will: The stock market party was disrupted as the Coronavirus upset the apple cart. Corporate earnings reports were strong...
Last Week: President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He finally signed a phase-one trade deal on Wednesday. The eight-part deal includes protections for trade secrets and intellectual property, mechanisms for enforceability, and commitments by Beijing to...
Last Week: We concluded last week’s blog saying “Friday is a big day for economic releases with the November nonfarm payrolls and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index scheduled to be reported. The stock market party will probably rage on as long as...
Last Week: All was quiet on the Wall Street front. The S&P 500 slipped 0.33% to break its six week winning streak, as reasonably good consumer reports offset modestly negative trade headlines. During that winning streak the market exhibited a remarkable absence of...
Last Week: TKIF! (Thank Kudlow It’s Friday) The market drifted through Thursday’s close, as investors slumbered through a mixed bag of economic reports and earnings releases, an escalation of unrest in Hong Kong, a clear message that interest rate policy is on hold...
Last Week: Treasury yields rose sharply during the week after signs that U.S. consumer spending remained strong and on receding trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Additionally, both the CPI and PPI showed some signs of inflation. The “Crowd” got caught all-in...
Last Week: My commentary from the previous week finished on an upbeat note, “The tone on trade improved over the weekend after President Trump said that Tim Cook made a “very compelling argument” that the tariffs on Chinese imports gave Samsung an edge over Apple....
Last Week: The first movement of August 2019 sounded like a reprise of the atonal first stanza of October 2018, with Fed and Trade policies combining to hurt the ears and wallets of investors. On Wednesday the Fed delivered a 25-basis point reduction in the target...
Last Week: Since the end of September, Federal Reserve and Trade policies have been the two storylines that have influenced the mood on Wall Street. Simply stated, the market wants the Fed to lower interest rates and for tariffs to go away. As a result, slightly cold...
Last Week: Legend has it that a young man ventured to inquire J.P. Morgan’s opinion as to the future course of the stock market. The alleged reply has become classic: “Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.” From February 2016 until February 2018 the...
Last Week: The market treaded water until Friday morning, when a flurry of positive news stories invigorated Wall Street. Strong Chinese exports and money supply growth, record earnings form JPMorgan, a well-received DIS streaming analyst meeting, and a big $50B oil...
Last Week: The porridge heated up enough to nourish the Goldilocks rally for another week. Stronger than expected economic data from China on Monday and a solid U.S. jobs report on Friday were the bookends to continued perceived progress on the trade front during the...
Last Week: The market held onto its post-Christmas gains as reasonably good corporate earnings outweighed new evidence of a slowing global economy and continued uncertainty over trade policy. On the earnings front the blended (combines actual results for companies...
Last Week: The market continued its recent rebound, as the narrative has shifted to include a more dovish Fed policy as well as a positive resolution of the trade war with China. The momentum-based trading models (are there any other trading models these days?) all...
Last Week: December 2018 was one of the worst months in history for the stock market, with the toxic combination of tax-loss selling and momentum trading driving stock prices down relentlessly. So far, the “January effect” in 2019 has been dramatic, as beaten down...
Last Week: Alongside the Chicago Bears, the Wall Street bears were major losers this week. It was the best of times, as there was news that moderated the bear market narrative driven by concerns over the economy, fed policy, and the trade war. As for the economy,...
Last Week: At the end of August, we noted a disconnect between the news flow and the markets performance: “The often-cited adage is that the stock market climbs the wall of worry. I would suggest that the current market is instead climbing the wall of “whatever”,...
Last Week: The market resumed its downward trend, with the S&P 500 shedding 1.61% and the Russell 2000 declining 1.42%. All ten sectors experienced losses, with Oil & Gas shares faring the worst as crude oil prices dropping for a record 12 straight days to...
Last Week: Despite enthusiasm on Monday morning over the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (take note that the word “Trade” disappeared from the agreement formally known as NAFTA), as the week progressed the trade and interest rate headwinds once again intensified. On...
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