On Hold Chicken Little flew the coop as investors concluded that the sky was not actually falling following the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averted a U.S. default combined with the mounting evidence that future interest rate hikes are on hold. The next...
Closing In Artificial intelligence and questionable intelligence dictated the action in the financial markets. Early in the week stocks drifted lower as debt ceiling talks progressed without resolution and the Fed minutes showed uncertainty about future monetary...
No Fresh Drama The equity markets moved higher, with the usual suspects (Apple and its fellow tech giants) continuing to lead the charge, but with the rally broadening out as other stocks joined the party. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and...
Last Week: Negative Spin Don’t worry, be happyIn every life we have some troubleBut when you worry, you make it doubleDon’t worry, be happyDon’t worry, be happy now Bobby McFerrin penned those lyrics back in 1988. Today’s grandstanding politicians and attention...
Another Rate Hike Uncertainty remained in fashion on Wall Street, with a mixture of comforting and disquieting headlines. On the one hand corporate earnings reports and the economic data releases were encouraging; on the other hand, there were fear mongering short...
Aftershock The market suffered from an SVB aftershock early in the week, as banking concerns resurfaced after First Republic Bank (FRC) revealed a continued deposit outflow. First Republic, the 14th largest bank in the U.S., relied on wealthy customers with large...
Watch the replay of Eric’s April 20th small cap segment on TD Ameritrade Network here. Stalemate April trading remained somewhat calm and quiet, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.1%, the Nasdaq sliding 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 gaining 0.6%. It has been one of the...
A Case for the Consumer Last week, the equity markets rose supported by mounting evidence of disinflation and solid results from JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) and other large banks. The gains were muted by the release of the Fed’s March FOMC minutes on Wednesday and...
Modest Rebound Trading got off to a crude start Monday as oil prices surged following news of a production cut led by Saudi Arabia. Regional banks got hit on Tuesday as analysts cut price targets on the group, in an excellent example of closing the barn door after the...
Volte Face It was all good news for the equity markets starting with the FDIC backed acquisition of SVB by First Citizens Bancshares on Monday and ending with a tame inflation report on Friday. Every sector of the market rallied with advancing issues outnumbering...
For the three-month period, the S&P 500 Total Return Index increased 7.5% while the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Intermediate Bond Index rose 2.4%. After a difficult 2022, most financial markets recovered in the first three months of 2023. It might be more accurate to...
Monetary Phenomenon Bankers around the world stole the headlines and fortunately not their depositors’ money. The new breed of bankers is quite different than those envisioned in the song “A British Bank” from Mary Poppins: “They must feel the thrill of totting up a...
Confidence Restored “If I had ever been here before I would probably know just what to do…” The lyrics from the CSNY song “Déjà Vu” – which was released exactly 53 years to the day from the onset of the SVB collapse – provide our rationale that the mistakes that...
There will be no podcast version of this week’s blog as Research Analyst Brooke Kuby is participating in the annual Roth MKM conference. Fallout Three years ago, the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic created a seismic shift in the global economies and financial markets....
Course of Action The stock market bounced back from its worst week of the year, finishing with its best day of the year on Friday. The rally seemed to be triggered by the comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Thursday afternoon, in which he suggested that...
Damage from Data “The Wacky U.S. Economy” is the most recent Barron’s magazine cover story. The article suggests that there is no precedent for the current economic conditions, therefore traditional monetary policy and forecasting tools are ineffective. Specifically,...
Recovery Ahead Whereas most media outlets seem to subscribe to the commonly accepted principle that bad news sells, we would prefer to channel the 1974 hit song from Rufus and Chaka Khan, “Tell Me Something Good”. Case in point, the hotter than expected CPI and PPI...
Humdrum Geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fedspeak, and lackluster earnings combined to produce humdrum financial markets. It was geopolitics on Monday with the U.S. shooting down a Chinese spy balloon over the coast of South Carolina. Several more flying objects were...
Five Words The combination of 5 dovish words from the Fed and encouraging data on the economy was able to overcome lackluster earnings reports and drive stock prices higher. Earnings reports continued to be subpar midway through the fourth quarter earnings season with...
Wild Rush The 2023 bull stampede on Wall Street continued as the economic data and corporate earnings reports declawed those grumpy bears. All the major market averages finished higher, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 4.3% to rack up a fourth straight week of...
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