Last Week: At the end of August, we noted a disconnect between the news flow and the markets performance: “The often-cited adage is that the stock market climbs the wall of worry. I would suggest that the current market is instead climbing the wall of “whatever”,...
Last Week: Pessimism has taken root, as the impact of the “trade war” on global economies has become manifest. In a sporting contest there is usually a winner and a loser. You strategize to beat your opponent. Global trade is not a sporting contest. Quite to the...
Last Week: Baby, it’s cold outside, and on Wall Street. Parenthetically, the Frank Loesser classic holiday song of that title (the “Elf” rendition is my favorite) has been banned from certain radio stations, but that’s a topic for a different forum. The glow from the...
Last Week: In Chicago and on Wall Street, it was a very good week for the Bears. For the former, there were wins on Sunday versus the Vikings and Thursday versus the Lions. For the latter, there were steep declines on Monday and Tuesday which resulted in a 3.8% loss...
Last Week: The market resumed its downward trend, with the S&P 500 shedding 1.61% and the Russell 2000 declining 1.42%. All ten sectors experienced losses, with Oil & Gas shares faring the worst as crude oil prices dropping for a record 12 straight days to...
Last Week: A bagful of earnings, economic data, and tweets, left investors to digest whether these were tricks or treats. By Friday’s close the verdict was primarily treats, as the S&P 500 snapped its losing streak to finish +2.42%. Nevertheless, there were a few...
Last Week: Ouch. The previous week’s sideways bottoming action gave way to a nasty sell-off, with the S&P 500 surrendering its remaining gains for 2018 after declining 3.9%. The Pendulum has quickly swung from greed to fear as the Volatility Index spiked to its...
Last Week: It was the worst week for the equity market since early February, with the S&P 500 declining 4.1%, erasing over half the gains for the year. Only a relief rally of over 1% in the last hour of trading Friday allowed the index to break a six-day losing...
Last Week: Despite enthusiasm on Monday morning over the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (take note that the word “Trade” disappeared from the agreement formally known as NAFTA), as the week progressed the trade and interest rate headwinds once again intensified. On...
Last Week: The two major near-term headwinds were lightly blowing in the face of investors, with the implementation of tariffs on Monday by the U.S. and China, followed by the Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday. Both events were widely expected, and the damage was...
Last Week: Curiouser and curiouser. How does this market keep setting new highs? During this past week, decliners and new lows outnumbered advancers and new highs, yet the S&P 500 notched a 0.85% gain and the DJIA surged 2.25% to finally reach new record. The...
Last Week: Once again, the market floated higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.16%, as the sweet vapors of good economic news filled the air. The September University of Michigan sentiment index rose to its second highest level since 2014, and Index of Business...
Last Week: If the proof of the pudding is really in the eating, then the current economic policy recipe seems to be valid as the US numbers remained terrific with very strong manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISMs, and jobless claims this week were 203,000, the...
Last Week: Another record high for the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.93% and the Russell 2000 0.87%. There wasn’t much news, fake or otherwise, driving the action, and volume was light in the pre-holiday week trading. One might say the song remains the...
Last Week: Stocks hit new highs, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.86% to finally close above its January 26th top, while small stocks fared even better, as the Russell 2000 surged 1.93%. The often-cited adage is that the stock market climbs the wall of worry. I would...
Last Week: To the casual observer, it was a quiet week, with the S&P 500 posting a modest 0.59% gain, while the U.S. Dollar and bond markets were largely unchanged. On the other hand, there was tremendous daily volatility in the overall market, as well as...
Last Week: The S&P 500 slipped 0.25%, the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury slid 10 basis points to 2.85%, while the U.S Dollar strengthened over 1% to a new 2018 high. The chart below shows the link between the strength in the dollar and the S&P this year,...
Last Week: Our TIEs (Trade, Interest rates, Earnings) theme remained the dominate narrative, with relatively benign developments on the Trade and Interest rates front and continued spectacular Earnings. Unlike most quarters when analysts make downward revisions to...
Last Week: In the words of the legendary rocker Bruce Springsteen, “You can’t forsake the ties that bind”. In today’s market those “TIEs” are Trade, Interest rates, and Earnings. Trade continues to dominate the narrative, probably because President Trump is a master...
Last Week: Wow, what a strange week. Let’s call it the Good, the Bad, and the Confusing. The Good: Corporate earnings are terrific. It now looks like 20.8% net profit growth on a 9% revenue increase. The Bad: US housing starts fell 12.3% in June to a nine-month low,...
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