Last Week: The glass is half empty: For Q2 2020, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -35.7%. If -35.7% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q4 2008 (-69.1%). The...
Last Week: Earnings season is underway with 26% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported actual results for Q2 2020. The good news is that the percentage of companies reporting actual EPS above estimates (81%) is above the five-year average, with companies...
Last Week: Earnings season produced no surprises with 9% of the S&P 500 companies having reported results which were consistent with forecasts for a 44% decline in profits for the quarter. If -44.0% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest...
Last Week: The market got off to a nice start on Monday after a weekend of significantly lower coronavirus deaths and bullish economic news from China’s state-run media. The middle of the week was dominated by a surge in COVID-19 cases and cautionary comments from Dr....
Last Week: Despite the general absence of fireworks (Mount Rushmore and other exceptions noted), the market enjoyed a festive pre-holiday rally with the S&P 500 gaining 4.02% and the Nasdaq Composite reaching a new record high. Three cheers for the Red, White, and...
Last Week: Mr. Market: I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Confused Investor: Yes, Sir. Mr. Market: Are you listening? Confused Investor: Yes, I am. Mr. Market: Vaccine. Confused Investor: Exactly how do you mean? Mr. Market: There’s a great future once we...
Last Week: On Monday the market opened sharply lower, but reversed course after the Fed expanded its asset purchasing to include corporate bonds. Optimism over the Fed Put (let’s have a contest to come up with a catchier name) and a significantly better than expected...
Last Week: We concluded our June 8th commentary with “Perhaps the glass is half full?” noting the surprising strong jobs report and the 43% bounce in the S&P 500 from its March 23 lows. On Monday the S&P 500 broke even for the year, and the Nasdaq Composite...
Last Week: It is an occupational hazard of the investment advisory business that we are often asked whether the stock market is rational (always an uncomfortable question, but as Hyman Roth said “this is the business we’ve chosen”). The recent disconnect between the...
Last Week: The S&P 500 gained another 3.01%, with the most beaten-up economically sensitive companies outperforming. The yield on the Ten-Year Treasury dropped one basis point to 0.65%, while the Dollar declined 1.5%. Most of the holiday -shortened week’s gains...
Last Week: In our May 18 Kuby’s Commentary (Happy Birthday Brooke Kuby) we noted the extraordinarily difficult year small cap stocks were having, posting more than double the S&P 500’s decline. In an attempt to “accentuate the positive”, we suggested that “when...
Last Week: Every Saturday morning I settle in with my cup of coffee and read the New York Times and Barron’s. This past weekend each had a headline that when put together clearly painted the picture of the surreal state of the world. The NYT business section digest...
Last Week: Reopening fervor overwhelmed COVID-19 fever as the S&P 500 surged 3.5% and the Russell 2000 jumped 5.5%! Following that rally the S&P 500 is now higher than it was a year ago: It is also almost 40% higher than it was five years ago, which seems like...
Last Week: My standard opening: “Hang in there! As expected, more evidence of the economic fallout, combined with a continued ramp up in global coronavirus cases, has resulted in a 24/7 stream of disturbing headlines.” In the first quarter, which only included a few...
Last Week: My standard opening: “Hang in there! As expected, more evidence of the economic fallout, combined with a continued ramp up in global coronavirus cases, has resulted in a 24/7 stream of disturbing headlines.” New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and...
Last Week: My standard opening: “Hang in there! As expected, more evidence of the economic fallout, combined with a continued ramp up in global coronavirus cases, has resulted in a 24/7 stream of disturbing headlines.” Unemployment claims surged and retail sales...
Last Week: According to the CDC’s website, the practice of quarantine began during the 14th century in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. Ships arriving in Venice from infected ports were required to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing....
Last Week: Hang in there! I hope to only have to open the commentary with those three words for a few more weeks. From last week’s blog we offered the following thoughts: “More evidence of the economic fallout will combine with a continued ramp up in global...
Last Week: Repeating verbatim from our last blog: “Hang in there! We are going through the most challenging period of our lifetimes. Following the CDC guidelines and keeping a positive attitude is the best medicine to heal physically and mentally.” I expect to open...
Last Week: Hang in there! We are going through the most challenging period of our lifetimes. Following the CDC guidelines and keeping a positive attitude is the best medicine to heal physically and mentally. It was the worst week since the height of the financial...
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